At this point everyone has played 75% of their games and there are a few things we know, things we think we know but maybe we don’t, and a lot to still be decided. One team (Rams) have already clinched a playoff spot, and several clinching scenarios exist for this weekend. So let’s take a look, starting in the AFC:
CURRENTLY IN
- Kansas City (10-2)
- New England (9-3) (head to head tiebreaker on Houston)
- Houston
- Pittsburgh (7-4-1)
- Los Angeles Chargers (9-3)
- Baltimore (7-5)
New England and Houston can both clinch their divisions this weekend, and Kansas City and LA (almost typed San Diego lol) can clinch playoff spots. Even if it’s not this weekend, it feels like it’s just a matter of time for all four. The Chiefs have a rematch with the Chargers coming in a couple weeks, but even if they lose that game winning the other 3 would guarantee the division on tiebreaking. New England has head to head wins on both the Chiefs and the Texans for seeding purposes and with 3 of their last 4 against AFC East opponents figure to finish no worse than 12-4.
The Steelers looked safe for winning the North division a couple weeks ago before they dropped to 0-3 against the AFC West (and only 3-3 at home). Baltimore still has games left with Kansas City and the Chargers but the Steelers still have games left with New England and New Orleans. It could come down to Week 17 and Pittsburgh needing to beat Cincinnati and/or root for the Browns to beat Baltimore again. But if the Steelers can beat Oakland this Sunday and Cincinnati 9-6-1 should suffice to at least make the playoffs at minimum unless things break just wrong.
IN THE HUNT
7. Miami (6-6) (conference record over Indianapolis [head to head over Tennessee for division rank] and Denver
8. Indianapolis (conference record on Denver)
9. Denver (conference record on Tennessee)
10. Tennessee
11. Cincinnati (5-7)
12. Cleveland (4-7-1)
Given that Baltimore has a couple tough games remaining there is a real chance of the 2nd wildcard being a 9-7 team unless someone in this pack has a perfect home stretch in them. Certainly the hottest team in the group is Denver, but we’ll see how the Emmanual Sanders injury impacts them. The Colts were hot until they got shut out in Jacksonville this past weekend. I include Cleveland even though 8-7-1 seems like a bit of a longer shot to work it is possible, especially considering in the last 3 weeks the Browns play Denver, Cincinnati, and Baltimore, ie 3 teams they are currently chasing.
And now for the NFC:
CURRENTLY IN
- Los Angeles Rams (11-1) [clinched division]
- New Orleans (10-2)
- Chicago (8-4)
- Dallas (7-5)
- Seattle (7-5)
- Minnesota (6-5-1)
IN THE HUNT
7. Carolina (6-6) (head to head over Philadelphia [head to head over Washington for division rank])
8. Philadelphia
9. Washington
10. Tampa (5-7)
The recent struggles of Carolina, Minnesota, and Green Bay along with a bit of a resurgence from Seattle have changed the picture on the bottom half of the seedings. The Saints can clinch the division, or at least a playoff spot, this weekend and the Rams can clinch a bye. At this point it seems fairly clear that the Rams and Saints will end up getting the bye seeds (one LA stumble can let New Orleans get the #1 seed because of the regular season win a couple weeks ago) and that the Bears will win the North and probably end up the #3 seed. The questions are who will win the East and who will get the wildcards. Dallas and Philadelphia both control their destiny and Washington seems to be fading being down to their 3rd quarterback.
As for the wildcards, Seattle is in good shape with the game lead on the outsiders and having games left with both Arizona and San Francisco (done playing the Rams). Minnesota has the inside track on the other spot and can probably afford one loss to end up 9-6-1 unless Carolina has a perfect last month, as it’s not likely that 2nd place in the East will be better than 9-7.
GAMES TO WATCH THIS WEEKEND
New Orleans @ Tampa. Saints trying to nail down a playoff spot, while the exciting Bucs, who won in New Orleans in Week 1, still have a shot to get to 9-7 and see what happens.
Indianapolis @ Houston. Colts trying to climb back into the playoff picture, and the Texans trying for 10 in a row and a division title.
Baltimore @ Kansas City. A win keeps the Ravens division hopes vibrant. Chiefs trying to stay ahead of all of their pursuers to ensure January goes thru Arrowhead.
Philadelphia @ Dallas. Winner will be leading the NFC East come Sunday night.
Los Angeles Rams @ Chicago. Rams trying to clinch a bye. A 2nd loss in a row for the Bears and suddenly the division title is less certain.
Minnesota @ Seattle. Currently the two NFC wildcards. The winner of this game looking much more safe, the loser very much not safe.