Archive for November, 2014

Current NFL Standings

November 27, 2014

We are now at the point where everyone has taken their byes, so all teams have played the same number of games.  Sorry not much analysis this week as I fell asleep earlier this evening and now its 4am, but here are the standings, starting in the AFC:

1. New England (9-2)

2. Denver (8-3)

3. Cincinnati (7-3-1)

4. Indianapolis (7-4)

5. Kansas City (7-4) ([head to head tiebreaker on San Diego for division rank] conference record on Baltimore [head to head to head on Pittsburgh & Cleveland for division rank])

6. San Diego (conference record on Baltimore {teams play each other this coming Sunday})

In the Hunt

7. Baltimore

8. Pittsburgh (record vs common opponents on Cleveland)

9. Cleveland

10. Miami (6-5) (division record winning percentage on Buffalo)

11. Buffalo

12. Houston (5-6)

Playing for 2015

13 & 14. New York & Tennessee (2-9) (same conference record & they’ll play each other later this season for what its worth)

15. Jacksonville (1-10) (conference record on Oakland)

16. Oakland

At this juncture, excluding division leading Cincinnati and Indianapolis, the AFC has 7 teams with either 6 or 7 wins fighting for the two wildcard spots and also to get back into their division leads.  Pittsburgh currently has tiebreaking on either Baltimore or Cleveland, but the Ravens hold the 3-way tie because their two losses to Cincinnati don’t count against them in this tie.  All 4 of the Ravens losses are in the conference which hurts them in most tiebreaking situations, given that everyone else other than Buffalo and Cleveland in this group only have 3 conference losses.  Buffalo plays Cleveland this weekend and Baltimore plays San Diego, so that could help sort things a little bit (or make it more jumbled).  In the North the Bengals currently lead by 1/2 game but they still have both games with Pittsburgh and one with Cleveland remaining.  Bottom line is odds are 10-6 will be what it takes to make the playoffs with the possibility that someone gets left out at that record, or that 9-6-1 or 9-7 gets someone in.

NFC

1. Arizona (9-2)

2. Green Bay (8-3) (head to head on Philadelphia [division record tiebreaker on Dallas])

3. Philadelphia

4. Atlanta (4-7) (head to head on New Orleans)

5. Dallas (8-3)

6. Seattle (7-4) ([division record on San Francisco] record vs opponents common with Detroit)

In the Hunt

7. Detroit (conference record on San Francisco

8. San Francisco

9. Chicago (5-6)

In the Hunt NFC South Edition

10. New Orleans (conference record on Minnesota & St. Louis)

Playing for 2015

11. Minnesota (head to head on St. Louis)

12. St. Louis

In the Hunt NFC South Edition

13. Carolina (3-7-1)

Playing for 2015

14. New York (3-8) (head to head on Washington)

15. Washington

In the Hunt NFC South Edition

16. Tampa Bay (2-9)

The NFC South is currently 6-24-1 in games outside the division.  But someone will get the 4 seed from this group.  My assumption is someone will get to 7-9 ultimately, but they all have loseable non-division games left.  Carolina at 3-7-1 might almost be in the best shape as they only have one AFC game left and still have 3 division games plus Minnesota this weekend, so maybe they can get to 7-8-1.  With Philadelphia playing Dallas and Seattle playing San Francisco on Thanksgiving, then again in a couple weeks, this might help start sorting out the good teams in the conference.

 

Updated NFL Standings

November 20, 2014

Maybe a more complete set of analysis after Week 12 action goes in the books, but here are the current standings (as I type the KC v Oakland game is in the 3rd quarter, the result of which will change the AFC playoff standings) starting in the AFC:

1. New England (8-2)

2. Denver (7-3) (head to head tiebreaker on Kansas City for division lead)

3. Cincinnati (6-3-1)

4. Indianapolis (6-4)

5. Kansas City

6. Pittsburgh (7-4)

In the Hunt

7. Miami (6-4) (conference record on San Diego & Baltimore [head to head on Cleveland for division rank])

8. San Diego (conference record on Baltimore {teams play each other later in season})

9. Baltimore

10. Cleveland

11. Houston (5-5) (head to head on Buffalo)

12. Buffalo

Playing for 2015

13. New York (2-8) (conference record on Tennessee {teams play each other later in season})

14. Tennessee

15. Jacksonville (1-9)

16. Oakland (0-10)

The Miami at Denver game this Sunday is critical; either the Broncos separate like we expect them to, or Miami improves to 7-4 and the Broncos drop to that record, which figures to be playoff spots, maybe even a team or two on the outside looking in, at the end of the weekend.

NFC

1. Arizona (9-1)

2. Detroit (7-3) ([head to head on Green Bay for division] conference record on Philadelphia [division record tiebreaker on Dallas for division])

3. Philadelphia

4. Atlanta (4-6) (head to head tiebreaker on New Orleans for division)

5. Green Bay (7-3) (conference record on Dallas)

6. Dallas

In the Hunt

7. San Francisco (6-4) (division record on Seattle)

8. Seattle

9. Chicago (4-6) ([head to head tiebreaker with Minnesota for division rank] conference record tiebreaker on St. Louis & 1 fewer conference loss than New Orleans {teams will play later in season})

10. New Orleans (head to head on Minnesota for conference rank after conference record drops St. Louis from 3 way tie {“In the Hunt NFC South Edition”})

11. Minnesota (conference record on St. Louis)

12. St. Louis

In the Hunt NFC South Edition

13. Carolina (3-7-1)

Playing for 2015

14. New York (3-7)  (head to head tiebreaker on Washington)

15. Washington

In the Hunt NFC South Edition

16. Tampa Bay (2-8)

The conference standings below the playoff cut read choppy trying to differentiate between mediocre & probably hopeless teams from teams that are mediocre with the good fortune of being in the South division.  Atlanta is 0-6 in non-division games but lead because they are undefeated in division games.  If they go 6-0 in the division they’ll probably need at least 1 non-division win as I assume someone will end up at least 7-9, maybe even 8-8.  Atlanta still has their home games with Cleveland and Pittsburgh, New Orleans has a home game with Baltimore and a game at Pittsburgh left.  Carolina is also still alive but probably can only afford 1 more loss; 2 would ultimate leave them 6-9-1 and I really hope that isn’t good enough!  There are a lot of teams with 6 or 7 wins in the other divisions and there won’t be room for all of them in the playoffs; the NFC could very conceivably have a 10-6 team or two miss.

With 5 weeks in which there are cross-conference games remaining, I find it interesting to note that the AFC and NFC are so far even against each other.  Because of the Bengals/Panthers tie, they won’t end up flat even unless there is a 2nd tie within the remaining games.

Current NFL Standings

November 14, 2014

Okay its that time of year again where I take the time each week to provide the current NFL conference standings and some quick thoughts.  I’ll start in the AFC:

1. New England (7-2) (head-to-head on Denver)

2. Denver

3. Indianapolis (6-3) (conference record on Cleveland [play each other Week 14])

4. Cleveland

5. Kansas City (6-3)

6. Cincinnati (5-3-1)

In the Hunt

7. Miami (6-4) (conference record on Pittsburgh [division record tiebreaker on Baltimore])

8. Pittsburgh

9. Baltimore

10. San Diego (5-4)

11. Buffalo (5-5)

12. Houston (4-5)

Playing for 2015

13. Tennessee (2-7)

14. New York (2-8)

15. Jacksonville (1-9)

16. Oakland (0-9)

Except for the South, at least 3 teams are still very alive in each division at this juncture.  The North is crazy close, with 1/2 game separating the four teams.  Cleveland with 3 losses and no ties is leading and in the best position, but things figure to be very fluid the rest of the way.  The same is true in the wildcard race, where only 1/2 game separates the top wildcard from the 3rd team out and a 4th team is only 1 full game out.  Of the pack Miami is in good shape if they can stay 2nd in the East (remember: you break division ties first in setting conference rankings) as they currently only have 2 conference losses.  All 4 of Baltimore’s losses are in the conference, including having lost 3 of 5 division games played which could hurt them in tiebreaking situations.  Within the North division you could have all teams go 3-3 in the division if Cleveland beats Cincinnati, Baltimore beats Cleveland, and Pittsburgh splits their two games with Cincinnati.

NFC

1. Arizona (8-1)

2. Detroit (7-2) (conference record on Philadelphia)

3. Philadelphia

4. New Orleans (4-5)

5. Dallas (7-3)

6. Seattle (6-3) (head-to-head on Green Bay)

In the Hunt

7. Green Bay

8. San Francisco (5-4)

9. Minnesota (4-5)

In the Hunt NFC South Edition

10. Carolina (3-6-1)

11. Atlanta (3-6) (conference record on Chicago, St. Louis, New York [head-to-head on Washington])

Barely Alive

12. Chicago (conference record on St. Louis & New York)

13. St Louis (conference record on New York [will play each other later in season]

14. New York

15. Washington

Playing for 2015

16. Tampa (1-8)

Things might even out a little bit by the end of the season, but right now you would have New Orleans make the playoffs by “winning” the South despite being a full 2 games worse than a Green Bay team that would miss the playoffs; they would get to host a Dallas team with a .700 winning percentage.  Only 7 of the 16 teams in the NFC are above .500 but is actually +1 against the AFC this season given the AFC has 4 teams with 2 or fewer wins at this point.  Arizona is off to a great start and if they beat Detroit this Sunday they would be in great shape to secure home field advantage throughout the playoffs as they have also already beaten Philadelphia.  And by throughout, I mean throughout as their stadium hosts the Super Bowl; a team has never played a Super Bowl in their own home stadium.  On the other hand, it wouldn’t take much for them to fall out of leading the division or really even making the playoffs, and they’ll be playing their backup quarterback the rest of the season.  Barring someone collapsing, 2 good teams are going to miss the playoffs with 2 teams in the East, 2 in the North, and 3 in the West (including 5-4 San Francisco) in the mix.  Atlanta is only 1 game out of their division lead despite not having yet won a non-division game in 6 tries.  They are, however, undefeated against the South (two of the three games against Tampa).

All in all, it should be a fun final 7 weeks as always!