Archive for December, 2017

NFL Playoff Observations that Came Upon a Midnight Clear

December 23, 2017

Sorry I am late getting this posted this week; I was off of work most of the week but was too busy sleeping or watching the new Star Wars movie to get to this.  Anyhow, here are the standings and a few observations, starting with the AFC:

  1. New England (11-3) (head to head over Pittsburgh)
  2. Pittsburgh
  3. Jacksonville (10-4)
  4. Kansas City (8-6)
  5. Tennessee (8-6) (conference record over Buffalo and Baltimore)
  6. Baltimore (records vs opponents common with Buffalo [I continue to differ from the official standings as put out by the NFL.  Buffalo still has not played the requisite minimum of four opponents that are in common with Baltimore, so this is not yet an official tiebreaker.  But assuming the full schedule gets played, it will be at the end of the season])
  7. Buffalo
  8. Los Angeles Charges (7-7)
  9. Oakland (6-8) (head to head over Miami)
  10. Miami
  11. New York Jets (5-9) (conference record over Cincinnati and Denver)
  12. Cincinnati (head to head over Denver)
  13. Denver
  14. Houston (4-10)
  15. Indianapolis (3-11)
  16. Cleveland (0-14)

The most interesting race at this point is for the wildcards.  If Tennessee, Baltimore, and Buffalo all win out to 10-6 they would all have 8-4 conference records.  In a 3 way tie it would go down to Strength of Victory.  Baltimore would not win this tie; right now Buffalo has a projected +1 on Tennessee.  If the Bills win this tiebreaker, then Tennessee edges Baltimore for the 2nd wildcard based on head to head win.  But if Tennessee wins the 3 way tie, then Baltimore edges Buffalo on the common opponents record.  Of course, the Titans could still win the South division at 10-6 if Jacksonville loses to San Francisco this coming Sunday; in that even the Jaguars win any tie with Baltimore and/or Buffalo on head to head or conference record.  If all 3 teams split to end up 9-7 the Titans will either win a tie on conference record (if they lose to the Rams but then beat the Jaguars) or the same dynamic plays out with a 7-5 conference record.  This is why the Titans can actually clinch a playoff spot this week by winning plus Baltimore and Buffalo losing.  Obviously one team losing a game guarantees two wins clinches a spot for the other two teams.  The Chargers could also be in the wildcard mix at 9-7 unless the Chiefs lose twice to hand Los Angeles the division.  However, they would have a weaker 6-6 conference record.  To make the playoffs as a wildcard they need two of three things to happen: 1. Tennessee loses twice. 2. Baltimore loses twice. 3. Buffalo loses at least once (Chargers win a head to head tie with Buffalo).

New England: Two wins guarantees them the #1 seed based on the Jesse James Rule.  However, if they lose either remaining game they could drop down to the #3 seed because they would have a worse conference record than Jacksonville.

Pittsburgh: Two wins guarantees them a bye seed and leaves them a chance at the #1 seed if the Patriots slip up.  However, losing either game also leaves them vulnerable to dropping below Jacksonville, either because of their head to head loss or conference record in a multi team tie involving New England.

Jacksonville: Winning either remaining game clinches the South division and winning both games leaves them a shot at a top 2 seed.  Losing to San Francisco would leave them vulnerable to not winning the division if they would lose the season ender with Tennessee.

Kansas City: Winning either remaining game clinches the West division, either outright or on head to head tiebreaker with the Chargers.  The winner of the West division will be the #4 seed.

Tennessee:  They basically control their destiny for making the playoffs given that Baltimore is not going to win the strength of victory tiebreaker; even if the Bills do the Titans can then win the tiebreaker for the #6 seed on head to head over the Ravens.  Winning both games can give them the division if the Jaguars make the same slip up in San Francisco that the Titans did last weekend.  They can still get in with splitting their last two games with help.

Baltimore: Winning both remaining games will probably get them in the playoffs but they are vulnerable in the scenario detailed above.  They also can get in at 9-7 with some help, but they should be able to win their two remaining games (Indianapolis and Cincinnati).

Buffalo: Their fate really rests on a narrow advantage over Tennessee in strength of victory (or getting help).  But they have to play at New England this Sunday; assuming they lose that game they really could need Baltimore to get upset.  Mind you, a Ravens loss in either remaining game changes the nature of this tiebreaker; they would then be even in record vs common opponents so Buffalo would then win the tie based on superior strength of victory.

Los Angeles:  Need two wins plus two Kansas City losses to win the West.  Or two wins plus a ton of help to get a wildcard.

Miami:  Looking at it, I think they still have a mathematical chance even though the ESPN crawl doesn’t list them and Oakland also at 6-8 is eliminated.  If they win both remaining games (Kansas City, Buffalo) and Buffalo loses to New England, the Dolphins are 2nd in the East.  If Baltimore loses both remaining games they are 8-8.  But the Dolphins lost to the Ravens.  However, if 2nd in the West is also exactly 8-8 (LA goes 1-1 down the stretch or wins both and Kansas City loses Week 17 to Denver) then the multi way tie goes to conference record.  At 7-5 Miami wins that tie.  Not likely.  But it’s the NFL and sometimes strange things happen.

And now for the NFC:

  1. Philadelphia (12-2)
  2. Minnesota (11-3)
  3. Los Angeles (10-4 ) (head to head over New Orleans [head to head over Carolina for division lead])
  4. New Orleans (head to head over Carolina)
  5. Carolina
  6. Atlanta (9-5)
  7. Detroit (8-6) (conference record on Seattle & Dallas)
  8. Seattle (tiebreaker on Dallas)
  9. Dallas
  10. Green Bay (7-7)
  11. Washington (6-8) (head to head over Arizona)
  12. Arizona
  13. Tampa (4-10) (conference record over Chicago and San Francisco)
  14. San Francisco (head to head over Chicago)
  15. Chicago
  16. New York (2-12)

Like the AFC, the most interesting race at this point is figuring out the wildcards.  The 3 good teams in the South all clinch playoff spots with one more win.  New Orleans and Carolina would get to 11 wins; Atlanta with 10 wins holds all necessary tiebreakers.  If any of the 3 South teams goes south and loses their last two games it does open the door for the 3 teams currently 8-6.  At 10-6 conference record would drop the Saints or Panthers from a 3 way tie, then after that Detroit is in the best shape because they would win a tie with the Dallas/Seattle survivor (those two play each other Week 16) based on a better record vs common opponents.  As such, the Seattle/Dallas winner not only needs a South team to lose out (Atlanta plays New Orleans and then Carolina while both the Saints and Panthers have a game left with Tampa) but they also need Detroit to lose once (Cincinnati then Green Bay).  Of course, the Seahawks do have the alternate scenario of two wins plus two Los Angeles losses gives Seattle the West division title.  For a wildcard the Rams at 10-6 would win a tie with New Orleans or Carolina that does not also involve Detroit but would lose a tie with Atlanta.

Philadelphia: Has already clinched a bye and will clinch the #1 seed with one more win or one more Minnesota loss (would win a tie with the Vikings based on record vs common opponents [Minnesota lost to Carolina]).

Minnesota: Has already clinched the division.  Two wins will clinch a bye seed.  One win plus Carolina not winning the South at 12-4 would also work.

Los Angeles: One win clinches the division and two wins gives them a chance at a bye seed.

New Orleans: One win clinches at least a playoff spot and two wins clinches the division title (with a chance at a bye seed).  Beating Atlanta plus Carolina losing once would also suffice for the division.  They could get in with two losses if Detroit lost once and the Dallas/Seattle winner lost in Week 17.

Carolina: One win clinches a playoff spot.  Two wins plus New Orleans losing once clinches the division.  Two wins plus the Saints, Vikings, and Rams losing once would yield a bye seed.  They could get in with two losses if Detroit lost once and the Dallas/Seattle winner lost in Week 17.

Atlanta: One win clinches a playoff spot and two wins guarantees winning the division.  They could get in with two losses if Detroit lost once and the Dallas/Seattle winner lost in Week 17.

Detroit: Must win twice plus have New Orleans or Carolina or Atlanta lose both remaining games to get in as the #6 seed.

Seattle: Must win twice plus have the Rams lose twice to win the West division and be the #4 seed.  Failing that they must win twice plus have New Orleans or Carolina or Atlanta lose twice plus Detroit lose once to get in as the #6 seed.

Dallas: Must win twice plus have New Orleans or Carolina or Atlanta lose twice plus have Detroit lose at least once to get in as the #6 seed.

Merry Christmas!

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NFL Playoff Picture 3 Weeks To Go

December 13, 2017

Below are the current conference standings, followed with team by team analysis on where things stand with three weeks to go.  Also, you will see that my playoff positioning in the AFC actually differs from what currently shows on NFL.com, and I will explain that in the standings.  So, starting as usual with the AFC:

  1. Pittsburgh (11-2)
  2. New England (10-3)
  3. Jacksonville (9-4)
  4. Kansas City (7-6) (head to head over Los Angeles for division lead)
  5. Tennessee (8-5)
  6. Baltimore (7-6) ([conference record drops Los Angeles from 3 way tie, then] record vs opponents common with Buffalo [officially Buffalo is currently ranked 6th in the conference because the minimum of 4 common games have not been played yet, and on the next tiebreaker, strength of victory, Buffalo has the edge.  However, if both teams win out to 10-6 Baltimore will win the common games tiebreaker 5-0 vs 4-1 {the Bills lost to Cincinnati}. Based on zero losses against opponents that will be common with Buffalo, I am ranking Baltimore 6th at this time])
  7. Los Angeles (head to head over Buffalo)
  8. Buffalo
  9. Oakland (6-7) (head to head over Miami)
  10. Miami
  11. New York (5-8) (conference record over Cincinnati)
  12. Cincinnati
  13. Houston (4-9) (conference record over Denver)
  14. Denver
  15. Indianapolis (3-10)
  16. Cleveland (0-13)

Pittsburgh: Has clinched their division and has scenarios to clinch a bye seed, or even the #1 seed, this weekend.  Winning two out of their last 3 games guarantees a bye seed, and winning the New England game this Sunday plus one of their last two would guarantee the #1 seed.

New England: Would clinch the division by winning this Sunday (or Buffalo losing).  Winning their last 3 games would guarantee the Patriots the #1 seed.  However, losing any of their last 3 games would leave them vulnerable to dropping out of the bye seed position.

Jacksonville: Would clinch a playoff spot by winning this Sunday.  They would win the division for sure if they beat Houston this Sunday and Tennessee in Week 17.  Winning out plus having New England lose once and/or Pittsburgh losing twice would give them a bye seed.

Kansas City:  If they beat Los Angeles Saturday night they would have to lose their last two games to fail to win the division.  Losing to Los Angeles however would leave them very vulnerable to missing the playoffs entirely.

Tennessee:  Winning their last 3 remaining games (49ers, Rams, Jaguars) would clinch the South division based on sweeping the series with Jacksonville.  As such, they can lose one of their next two games and still win the division if the Jaguars also lose one of their next two games.  Losing to Jacksonville would leave them vulnerable to missing the playoffs if both Baltimore and Buffalo win out as they would have the worst conference record at 10-6.

Baltimore: As detailed in the standings, if they win their last 3 games (Cleveland, Indianapolis, Cincinnati) they will get in as a wildcard.  Baltimore would also get in if Buffalo loses once and Baltimore’s loss is the Cleveland game, or if Buffalo’s loss is one of their games with Miami.

Los Angeles: If they win out they win the West division.  If they beat Kansas City but lose one of their last two games (Jets, Raiders) the Chiefs and/or Raiders beat them in ties at 9-7.  Also, the Chargers would need considerable help to get a wildcard at 9-7 as they would not win a tie that involves Baltimore.

Buffalo: If they win out to 10-6 they make the playoffs if Baltimore or Tennessee loses once.

Oakland: If they win out to 9-7 they win the division if Kansas City loses twice and they clinch strength of victory over the Chargers.  To get a wildcard would require considerable help as they would not survive a tie with either Baltimore or Buffalo.

Miami: To make the playoffs at 9-7 they would need Baltimore to lose twice or Baltimore to lose once and Tennessee lose twice.  They still have both games remaining with Buffalo and so would throw the Bills behind them.

New York & Cincinnati: Mathematically alive.

And now for the NFC:

  1. Philadelphia (11-2)
  2. Minnesota (10-3)
  3. Los Angeles (9-4) (head to head over New Orleans [head to head over Carolina for division lead])
  4. New Orleans (head to head over Carolina for division lead)
  5. Carolina
  6. Atlanta (8-5) (head to head over Seattle)
  7. Seattle
  8. Detroit (7-6) ([head to head over Green Bay for division rank] record vs opponents common with Dallas)
  9. Green Bay (head to head over Dallas)
  10. Dallas
  11. Arizona (6-7)
  12. Washington (5-8)
  13. Tampa (4-9) (head to head over Chicago)
  14. Chicago
  15. San Francisco (3-10)
  16. New York (2-11)

Philadelphia: Has clinched the division.  They can clinch a bye seed, or even the #1 seed, this weekend with a win and help.  Ultimately, winning their last 3 games guarantees the #1 seed.

Minnesota: Can clinch the division title by winning this Sunday.  Winning two of their last 3 games would suffice to clinch a bye seed unless Carolina wins the South division at 12-4; winning all 3 games removes doubt.

Lost Angeles: Has a 5 point scenario for clinching a playoff spot this weekend.  Winning the Seattle game this Sunday plus one of their two other games would clinch the West division.  If they lose to Seattle but win their other two games they should be at least a wildcard even if all 3 good teams in the South end up 11-5 based on their head to head win over New Orleans.  To get a bye seed they’ll need to win out and have either Minnesota lose two of their last three games or Philadelphia lose all 3 remaining games.

New Orleans: Wins the division by winning their last 3 games.  However, if they lose their rematch with Atlanta that opens the door for the Falcons to win the South, and losing any remaining game opens the door for Carolina.  Winning two of their final 3 games does guarantee a playoff spot given that the Carolina v Atlanta game can’t be won by both teams.  Winning out gives the Saints a chance at a bye seed; however they lost to the Vikings back in Week 1 so they need a decent amount of help.

Carolina: If I am reckoning things correctly, they are the team that could have the horrible luck of missing the playoffs at 11-5 if Atlanta wins the division at 11-5, the Saints end up 11-5, and Los Angeles is 2nd in the West at 11-5.  They would be 3rd in the South and the Rams would get the spot ahead of New Orleans.  That having been said, winning the Atlanta game and at least 1 of the 2 others would guarantee them a playoff spot, and they can win the division by winning out and having New Orleans lose a game (or other scenarios).  If they do win the division at 12-4 they would only need the Vikings to lose one game to get a bye seed.

Atlanta:  They are currently a wildcard but are not likely to end up a wildcard.  If they win out they win the South division at 11-5.  If they lose once down the stretch they can still get in as a wildcard if Seattle loses once or Los Angeles loses twice.

Seattle: If they win their last 3 games they win the West division by virtue of sweeping their head to head with the Rams.  If they lose once down the stretch and fail to win the West they would likely need Atlanta to lose twice, they could not win a head to head tie with Green Bay at 10-6, and if the loss was to Dallas they would also be vulnerable to a tie with the Cowboys at 10-6 (could also be vulnerable in a tie with Detroit).

Detroit: If they win out to 10-6 they still have a mathematical shot at winning the division.  They would lose a tie with Atlanta at 10-6 but would win a tie with Carolina and could survive a tie with New Orleans if it also involved other teams (Dallas or 2nd in the West).

Green Bay: Also could win the division at 10-6 if Minnesota lost out.  They are actually in somewhat better shape than Detroit; they would beat the Lions to push them behind, they do not fear a tie with Dallas, and they would win a tie with Carolina if the Panthers lose one of their last two games.  They also do not fear Seattle being at 10-6.  The only landmine is the Packers lose a tie with Atlanta.

Dallas: At 10-6 they are going to want the Detroit/Green Bay winner to have lost one of their other two games.  They would beat Seattle to get there, so the main thing the Cowboys need is for whoever ends up 3rd in the South to lose two of their final three games (they win a tie with New Orleans or Carolina at 10-6)

Arizona: Mathematically alive

And finally, here are the official clinching scenarios for Week 15 copy/pasted from NFL.com:

Philadelphia clinches homefield advantage throughout NFC playoffs:

1) PHI win + MIN loss

Philadelphia clinches a first-round bye:

1) PHI win

2) PHI tie + LAR loss or tie + NO loss or tie + CAR loss or tie

Minnesota Vikings

Minnesota clinches NFC North Division:

1) MIN win or tie

2) DET loss or tie + GB loss or tie

Minnesota clinches a playoff berth:

1) SEA loss + ATL loss + NO loss

2) SEA loss + ATL loss + CAR loss

3) SEA loss + ATL loss + DET loss or tie

4) SEA loss + ATL tie + NO loss + DET loss or tie

5) SEA loss + ATL tie + NO loss + CAR loss

Los Angeles Rams

LA Rams clinch a playoff berth:

LAR win + DET loss or tie + GB loss or tie + NO loss + ATL loss

Pittsburgh Steelers

Pitssburgh clinches homefield advantage throughout AFC playoffs:

1. PIT win + JAX loss or tie

Pittsburgh clinches first-round bye:

1. PIT win

2. PIT tie + JAX loss

New England Patriots

New England clinches AFC East Division:

1. NE win or tie

2. BUF loss or tie

New England clinches a playoff berth:

1. BAL loss or tie

Jacksonville Jaguars

Jacksonville clinches a playoff berth:

1. JAX win

2. JAX tie +BUF loss or tie

3. JAX tie + BAL loss or tie

4. BUF loss + BAL loss

5. BAL loss + KC-LAC game does not end in a tie

NFL Situation at the 3/4 Pole

December 7, 2017

With four weeks to go in the NFL season it would seem that the playoff picture is starting to take shape.  However, an NFL season usually is full of twists and turns and I assume this year will be no different; while a number of teams can clinch playoff spots this coming weekend, no one has cinched a spot yet.  Below are the current standings and analysis, starting with the AFC:

  1. Pittsburgh (10-2) (strength of victory vs New England [+1])
  2. New England
  3. Tennessee (8-4) (head to head over Jacksonville for division lead)
  4. Kansas City (6-6) (division record tiebreaker over Los Angeles and Oakland for division lead)
  5. Jacksonville (8-4)
  6. Baltimore (7-5)
  7. Los Angeles Chargers (6-6) ([head to head over Oakland for division rank] head to head over Buffalo)
  8. Buffalo (head to head over Oakland)
  9. Oakland
  10. New York Jets (5-7) ([division record winning percentage over Miami for division rank] conference record over Cincinnati)
  11. Miami (conference record over Cincinnati)
  12. Cincinnati
  13. Houston (4-8)
  14. Indianapolis (3-9) (conference record over Denver)
  15. Denver
  16. Cleveland (0-16)

At this point I would say the top 12 teams are all still alive for a playoff spot as the 2nd wildcard ending up 9-7 cannot be ruled out.  The Patriots and Steelers have win and clinch division scenarios this weekend; Jacksonville actually has a convuluted six games involved scenario to clinch a playoff spot in Week 14.  Each week that goes by continues to reinforce the thought that New England and Pittsburgh will likely end up with the two bye seeds with the December 17th game at Heinz Field likely going a long way to determining the #1 seed.  And each week that goes by continues to reinforce the notion that both the Titans and Jaguars will make the playoffs; one as the division winner and probably the #3 seed and the other as a wildcard.

The Chiefs continued free fall, losing 6 of 7 games after a 5-0 start, has pulled the West division race back wide open.  Kansas City, Oakland, and Los Angeles all have one game remaining with each other (the Chiefs and Raiders play each other this Sunday afternoon) so all 3 of them have complete control of their fate.  In their first matchups the Chiefs beat the Chargers but lost to the Raiders while the Raiders lost to the Chargers.

Baltimore is in great shape for getting a wildcard (can still win the division if they win at Pittsburgh this coming Sunday night).  They have a one game lead on Buffalo; if they end up tied it will also be with the same conference record but the Ravens currently have an advantage in the next tiebreaker, record vs common opponents.  If I am not missing something, if Baltimore loses to Pittsburgh but wins their last 3 games (their other 3 games are Cleveland, Indianapolis, and Cincinnati) they will make the playoffs even if Buffalo wins out (2nd place in the West cannot be 10-6 because of the 3 tied teams all playing each other down the stretch).  Even a 3 way tie involving 2nd place in the South should not mess it up for Baltimore.  However, if the Ravens would lose at least 2 games and the Bills at least 1 more game, then that does bring the 2nd wildcard down to 9-7.  This could be advantage Jets or Dolphins as either of them would be 8-4 in the conference at 9-7 whereas Buffalo, Baltimore, and Kansas City would be 7-5 and Cincinnati, LA, and Oakland only 6-6.  This would be a bit of a chaos scenario figuring out which team wins the West and then interdependent scenarios of certain teams winning head to head ties but losing others vs multi-way ties that go to conference record, breaking ties for 2nd place in the division first, etc.

And now for the NFC:

  1. Minnesota (10-2) (strength of victory vs Philadelphia [+11])
  2. Philadelphia
  3. Los Angeles Rams (9-3) (head to head vs New Orleans)
  4. New Orleans
  5. Seattle (8-4) (conference record vs Carolina)
  6. Carolina
  7. Atlanta (7-5)
  8. Detroit (6-6) ([head to head over Green Bay for division rank] record vs opponents common with Dallas)
  9. Green Bay (head to head over Dallas)
  10. Dallas
  11. Washington (5-7) (conference record over Arizona)
  12. Arizona
  13. Tampa (4-8)
  14. Chicago (3-9)
  15. San Francisco (2-10) (head to head over New York Giants)
  16. New York Giants

In the NFC I would say 10 teams are still alive for a playoff spot and the 3 teams at 6-6 are hanging by the thread of a hope that the 2nd wildcard spot ends up at 10-6.  Of that group it continues to be true that Green Bay would be in the best position, as they have games left with Detroit who they need to climb ahead of, have already beat Dallas, and have a game left with Carolina which is a team they are trying to catch.  But if it ends up taking 11-5 to make the playoffs we are already down to 7 teams for 6 spots.

Atlanta is currently on the outside looking in, but they actually still control their fate for winning the South division.  A quirk of the schedule is that all of their remaining games are within the division including both games with New Orleans (Thursday Nigh football this week).  At 11-5 they would win the South.  On the other hand, even one loss down the stretch and they are going to need help to make it as a wildcard.  At this point the most likely scenario is that Los Angeles and Seattle both make the playoffs out of the West and that two teams from the South get in.

At the top the battle for bye seeds (and in fact the division itself in the South and West) figures to come down to the wire.  Minnesota is currently #1 by virtue of a much stronger strength of victory than Philadelphia (both have 1 conference loss and are undefeated against opponents they share in common).  At 13-3 New Orleans would only have 2 conference losses, which is what the Eagles or Vikings would likely also have at that record.  The Rams have 3 conference losses, however one of their wins was over the Saints.  Which is why I say this could really come down to the wire to see who maybe has a slip up or two with a lot of ties potentially coming down to record vs common opponents or strength of victory.  Obviously at this point Philadelphia and Minnesota control their fates for getting a bye seed, and they also have the luxury of having their divisions more or less salted away (with straightforward win and in clinching scenarios this weekend).  Los Angeles and New Orleans also have convoluted multi-step scenarios for clinching a playoff spot this weekend.

Below are the official clinching scenarios for Week 14 copy/pasted from NFL.com:

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (10-2) (at Miami, Monday night)

New England clinches AFC East division with:

1. NE win or tie OR

2. BUF loss or tie

PITTSBURGH STEELERS (10-2) (vs. Baltimore, Sunday night)

Pittsburgh clinches AFC North division with:

1. PIT win or tie

Pittsburgh clinches a playoff berth with:

1. BUF loss or tie

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (8-4) (vs. Seattle, Sunday)

Jacksonville clinches a playoff berth with:

1. JAX win + BUF loss + MIA loss or tie + NYJ loss or tie + LAC loss or tie + OAK-KC game does not end in a tie

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (10-2) (at Los Angeles Rams, Sunday)

Philadelphia clinches NFC East division with:

1. PHI win or tie OR

2. DAL loss or tie

MINNESOTA VIKINGS (10-2) (at Carolina, Sunday)

Minnesota clinches NFC North division with:

1. MIN win or tie OR

2. DET loss or tie + GB loss or tie

LOS ANGELES RAMS (9-3) (vs. Philadelphia (10-2), Sunday)

Los Angeles Rams clinch a playoff berth with:

1. LAR win + DET loss or tie + GB loss or tie + DAL loss or tie + CAR loss + ATL loss

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (9-3) (at Atlanta, Thursday night)

New Orleans clinches a playoff berth with:

1. NO win + CAR loss or tie + DAL loss or tie OR

2. NO win + CAR loss + DET loss or tie OR

3. NO win + DET loss or tie + GB loss or tie OR

4. NO win + CAR loss + NO clinches strength of victory tiebreaker over DAL OR

5. NO win + CAR tie + NO clinches strength of victory tiebreaker over DAL and GB OR

6. NO win + CAR tie + GB loss or tie + NO clinches strength of victory tiebreaker over DAL