Final NFL Conference Standings & Playoff Schedule

AFC

1. New England (13-3)

2. Baltimore (12-4) (head-to-head on Pittsburgh for division rank)

3. Houston (10-6)

4. Denver (8-8) (record against opponents common with San Diego & Oakland for division rank)

5. Pittsburgh (12-4)

6. Cincinnati (9-7) (head-to-head on Tennessee)

Cincinnati @ Houston Saturday January 7th at 4:30pm on NBC (Tom Hammond & Mike Mayock). Pittsburgh @ Denver Sunday January 8th at 4:30pm on CBS (Jim Nantz & Phil Simms). Lower winning seed @ New England Saturday January 14th at 8pm on CBS (Nantz & Simms). Higher winning seed @ Baltimore Sunday January 15th at 1pm on CBS (Greg Gumbel & Dan Dierdorf). Lower seed @ higher seed Sunday January 22nd at 3pm on CBS (Nantz & Simms).  AFC champion will be “home” team in Super Bowl at Indianapolis Sunday February 5th at 6:25pm on NBC (Al Michaels & Cris Collinsworth).

7. Tennessee

8. New York (8-8) (head-to-head on San Diego [conference record on Oakland for division rank])

9. San Diego

10. Oakland

11. Kansas City (7-9)

12. Miami (6-10) (head-to-head on Buffalo)

13. Buffalo

14. Jacksonville (5-11)

15. Cleveland (4-12)

16. Indianapolis (2-14)

A few facts that may interest only me:

The Bengals went 0-7 against playoff teams & 9-0 against non-playoff teams.

All AFC West divisional matchups were head-to-head splits.

New York Jets not only finished with a .500 overall record, they also were .500 in division games, .500 against opponents common to everyone in the AFC East, and .500 in both conference and non-conference games.

San Diego finished with the best record in conference games amongst AFC West teams.  However, record against common opponents is a more primary tiebreaker in division ties because all but two games are common (versus all but four games being within the conference), and on that level Denver finished with a 1 game lead on both San Diego & Oakland.

Baltimore was the only AFC team to win all 6 division games, and Cleveland was the only AFC team to lose all 6 division games.  Pittsburgh also swept Cincinnati, meaning the division records followed a very rational 6-0, 4-2, 2-4, 0-6 progression, the only division in the NFL to do so.

Tennessee was the only team in either conference to have a winning record and fail to make the playoffs.

NFC

1. Green Bay (15-1)

2. San Francisco (13-3) (record in conference games tiebreaker on New Orleans)

3. New Orleans

4. New York (9-7)

5. Atlanta (10-6) (head-to-head tiebreaker on Detroit)

6. Detroit

Detroit @ New Orleans Saturday January 7th at 8pm on NBC (Al Michaels & Cris Collinsworth). Atlanta @ New York Sunday January 8th at 1pm on Fox (Joe Buck & Troy Aikman). Higher winning seed @ San Francisco Saturday January 14th at 4:30pm on Fox (Kenny Albert, Moose, & Goose). Lower winning seed at Green Bay Sunday January 15th at 4:30pm (Buck & Aikman). Lower seed @ higher seed Sunday January 22nd at 6:30pm on Fox (Buck & Aikman). NFC champion will be “road” team in Super Bowl at Indianapolis Sunday February 5th at 6:25pm on NBC (Michaels & Collinsworth).

7. Chicago (8-8) (conference record drops Philadelphia [head-to-head on Dallas for division rank] from 3-way tie, then record against opponents common with Arizona)

8. Arizona (head-to-head on Philadelphia)

9. Philadelphia

10. Dallas

11. Seattle (7-9)

12. Carolina (6-10)

13. Washington (5-11)

14. Tampa Bay (4-12)

15. Minnesota (3-13)

16. St. Louis (2-14)

A few facts that may interest only me:

New York won the division despite only going 5-7 in conference games; 2-4 in conference games outside division games.

Philadelphia failed to win the division despite going 5-1 against their NFC East compatriots; they were 3-7 in non-division games.

Green Bay was the only NFC team to win all 6 division games; Minnesota & St. Louis both lost all 6 of their division games.

St. Louis went 2-14 & New Orleans went 13-3. However, one of the Rams wins was also one of the Saints losses, at the Superdome no less.

The NFC North went 4-0 in power matches against the NFC East; the same thing happened between North & East divisions in the AFC.

The NFC ended up +2 against the AFC in cross-conference games this season.  Which is to say, if only one NFC win had been turned into an AFC win, the season conference series would have been dead even.

Green Bay only lost one game this season, and it was to a Kansas City team that finished last in its division.

All 8 teams that finished last in their divisions had the worst (or tied worst) record in division games within their divisions.

NFL TV Maps for Week 17 for Tri State Area

Both CBS and Fox have doubleheaders this Sunday to conclude the regular season.  At 1pm all local CBS affiliates will show the NY Jets @ Miami with Greg Gumbel and Dan Dierdorf.  However, it should be noted that KDKA Pittsburgh would pull out of coverage of early games at approximately 4:12pm in time to do a commercial break & then the start of the Steelers game.  All local Fox affiliates will show Carolina @ New Orleans with Joe Buck and Troy Aikman.  At 4:15 all local Fox affiliates will show Tampa @ Atlanta with Dick Stockton and John Lynch while all local CBS affiliates show Pittsburgh @ Cleveland with Kevin Harlan and Solomon Wilcots.  And the NFL Red Zone Channel will offer its customary continuous live whip around the league all afternoon.  The Sunday Night game on NBC is Dallas @ NY Giants with Al Michaels and Cris Collinsworth.  As per usual this info from the506.com and subject to change.  Happy New Year and enjoy the games!

NFL Conference Standings & Playoff Scenarios Week 17

Below are the current conference standings in the NFL along with the Week 17 playoff scenarios.  I will attempt to explain the scenarios for the 6th seed in the AFC as eloquently and succinctly as possible.  You may also note a fundamental change in assumptions when I lay out the projected TV schedule for wildcard weekend; while I have not seen confirmation of this anywhere, I am proceeding under the hunch that the NFL let NBC have both games in the Dallas v NY Giants matchup this season while making a deal with Fox that Fox would get the NFC East winner involved wildcard game.  It was the only true “win and in” game on the schedule that is not potentially affected by other games, so it was the logical game to move to NBC.  If it had not been this game it could’ve been Baltimore at Cincinnati, but even it could have been rendered moot by about 5 other games all breaking a certain way.  You will also notice this post does not have the TV maps for Week 17; as of 5 minutes ago the506.com was not updated with that information yet; when it is I will either append that info to this post or make a separate posting.  All 16 games are on Sunday and both CBS & Fox will have doubleheaders.  Without further preamble, here is the playoff picture, starting in the AFC:

1. New England (clinched bye seed) (12-3)

2. Baltimore (clinched playoff spot) (11-4) (head-to-head tiebreaker on Pittsburgh)

3. Houston (clinched #3 seed) (10-5)

4. Denver (8-7) (record in common games tiebreaker with Oakland for division rank)

5. Pittsburgh (11-4)

6. Cincinnati (9-6)

Pittsburgh @ Denver Saturday January 7th at 8pm on NBC (Al Michaels & Cris Collinsworth). Cincinnati @ Houston Sunday January 8th at 1pm on CBS (Jim Nantz & Phil Simms). Lower winning seed @ New England Saturday January 14th at 8pm on CBS (Jim Nantz & Phil Simms). Higher winning seed @ Baltimore Sunday January 15th at 1pm on CBS (Greg Gumbel & Dan Dierdorf)

In the Hunt

7. Oakland (8-7) (strength of victory tiebreaker on Tennessee & New York)

8. Tennessee (record against opponents common with New York)

9. New York

Mathematically Eliminated

10. San Diego (7-8)

11. Buffalo (6-9) (head-to-head tiebreaker on Kansas City)

12. Kansas City

13. Miami (5-10)

14. Cleveland (4-11) (head-to-head tiebreaker on Jacksonville)

15. Jacksonville

16. Indianapolis (2-13)

There are 4 battles in the AFC this week: the fight for the last wildcard spot, the fight for the AFC West title, the fight for the North title and a bye seed, and for the #1 seed.  The battles for the #6 seed and for the West title & #4 seed are the most important, and to a certain degree interwoven.  Let’s look at the #6 seed situation first:

Cincinnati has a one game lead going into the final game, so for them its rather simple; a win or a tie at home against Baltimore and they have it.  Oakland, Tennessee, and New York are alive if the Bengals lose, and there are certain combinations of ties that work, and don’t work, for all of those teams.  First a quick lesson on tiebreaking procedures outside a division.  If you have a 3 or 4 team tie, and all of the involved teams did not play each other, you go thru a progression, starting with conference record.  If one team has a better record, they win.  On the other hand, if one (or 2) teams have a worse record, they are dropped, then you start from scratch with the remaining tied teams, going back to head-to-head and forward from there.  If Cincinnati loses Sunday, their conference record would be 6-6.  If New York or Oakland or Tennessee win on Sunday, their conference records would be 7-5, so in multi-team ties the Bengals are dropped and you start from scratch.  Adding another level of complexity is that Oakland can still win the West division if they have a better Sunday than Denver.  So here are the scenarios, who wins, and why:

Cincinnati, Oakland, Tennessee, and New York are all 9-7:  The Bengals are dropped due to a weaker conference record.  Oakland wins the 3-way tie based on a superior “strength of victory” as the teams they have defeated over the course of the season have a better combined record.  Entering this week by my math Oakland’s advantage is +6 wins on New York (playing an opponent with two more wins) and +7 on Tennessee (playing an opponent with 2 fewer wins).  That is too large an advantage to be erased by the final day’s outcomes around the NFL, so Oakland wins this tie.

Cincinnati, Oakland, & New York are all 9-7: Again the Bengals conference record drops them.  Then Oakland beat New York head-to-head, so the Raiders have this tie.

Cincinnati, Oakland, & Tennessee are all 9-7: The Bengals are dropped because of their conference record.  Tennessee wins this tie with Oakland on record against common opponents; by beating Houston in Week 17 the Titans would be 4-1 in those games vs 3-2 for Oakland.

Cincinnati, Tennessee, & New York are all 9-7: Drop the Bengals.  Tennessee also wins this tie on record against common opponents, again with a margin of 4-1 vs 3-2.

Cincinnati & Oakland are 9-7: Oakland on conference record

Cincinnati & New York are 9-7: This is the only combination that works for New York, again on conference record.

Cincinnati & Tennessee are 9-7: This is the Bengals back door scenario; if New York loses and Oakland either loses or wins the West the Bengals defeated Tennessee and win a head-to-head tie with the Titans.  Or of course if everyone loses and the Bengals are alone at 9-7 that works for them.

As I alluded to above, teams that need Oakland to NOT be a part of a certain tie have two ways to achieve that.  They can have the Raiders lose or tie their game with San Diego.  Or, they can have the Raiders win & by doing so win the West division.  Obviously, if they win the West they’re not in the wildcard situation.  To win the West Oakland must finish ahead of Denver, who they enter the week tied with, due to Denver having a 1 game advantage against common opponents.

As far as the North division and a bye seed, and the #1 overall seed in the AFC are concerned, those have many fewer moving parts and are therefor very straightforward.  Baltimore wins a tie with Pittsburgh on head-to-head sweep, so the Steelers must have a better weekend than the Ravens.  The Patriots have the #1 seed if they win or tie.  However, if they lose and the Ravens win Baltimore wins this tie on strength of victory; the Ravens advantage is an iron-clad +12.  If the Patriots lose and Pittsburgh wins and wins the North, the Steelers have this tie on head-to-head.

Now for the NFC:

1. Green Bay (clinched #1 seed) (14-1)

2. San Francisco (clinched division) (12-3) (conference record on New Orleans)

3. New Orleans (clinched division) (12-3)

4. New York (8-7) (head-to-head tiebreaker on Dallas)

5. Detroit (10-5)

6. Atlanta (9-6)

Atlanta @ New Orleans Saturday January 7th at 4:30pm on NBC (Tom Hammond & Mike Mayock).  Detroit @ New York Sunday January 8th at 4:30pm on Fox (Joe Buck & Troy Aikman). Higher winning seed @ San Francisco Saturday January 14th at 4:30pm on Fox (Kenny Albert, Moose, & Goose).  Lower winning seed @ Green Bay Sunday January 15th at 4:30pm on Fox (Joe Buck & Troy Aikman).

In the Hunt

7. Dallas (8-7) (alive in NFC East race only)

Mathematically Eliminated

8. Seattle (7-8) ([head-to-head on Arizona for division rank] head-to-head-to-head on Philadelphia & Chicago)

9. Chicago (conference record drops Philadelphia from tie, then record against opponents common with Arizona)

10. Arizona (head-to-head on Philadelphia)

11. Philadelphia

12. Carolina (6-9)

13. Washington (5-10)

14. Tampa Bay (4-11)

15. Minnesota (3-12)

16. St. Louis (2-13)

The competitive races in the NFC are for who wins the East and gets the #4 seed, who gets the #2 seed and the bye that goes with, and to sort out who is seeded 5th & 6th.  All of these races are between two teams and very straightforward.  New York & Dallas are tied and playing each other this Sunday night; the Giants won the first meeting and can therefor afford a tie game whereas Dallas must win.  San Francisco has a better conference record than New Orleans and therefor gets the #2 by beating St. Louis Sunday; the Saints need to have a better Sunday than the 49ers to jump in front.  Detroit has a 1 game lead on Atlanta for the #5 seed but if the Lions lose at Green Bay and Atlanta beats Tampa, the Falcons jump in front based on a head-to-head victory.  Normally I would tell both teams to not sweat that detail too much, but this year I see a definite advantage in being #5 and playing the “winner” of the East as opposed to being #6 and facing a trip to New Orleans or San Francisco in the wildcard round.

In summary, the AFC is the more interesting conference to watch this week, particularly in the late afternoon when the 4 AFC North and AFC West games will be played.  Below are the official playoff scenarios from NFL.com:

NFC

CLINCHED:

Green Bay Packers — North Division and home-field advantage through NFC playoffs.

San Francisco 49ers — West Division.

New Orleans Saints — South Division.

Detroit Lions — Wild-card spot.

Atlanta Falcons — Wild-card spot.

ELIMINATED:

Arizona, Carolina, Minnesota, Philadelphia, Seattle, St. Louis, Tampa Bay, Washington, Chicago.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

San Francisco clinches a first-round bye with:

1) SF win

2) SF tie + NO loss or tie

3) NO loss

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

New Orleans clinches a first-round bye with:

1) NO win + SF loss or tie

2) NO tie + SF loss

NEW YORK GIANTS

Giants clinch NFC East Division with:

1) NYG win or tie

DALLAS COWBOYS

Dallas clinches NFC East Division with:

1) DAL win

AFC

CLINCHED:

New England Patriots — East Division and a first-round bye.

Houston Texans — South Division.

Baltimore Ravens — Wild-card spot.

Pittsburgh Steelers — Wild-card spot.

ELIMINATED:

Buffalo, Cleveland, Jacksonville, Kansas City, Indianapolis, Miami, San Diego

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

New England clinches home-field advantage throughout AFC playoffs with:

1) NE win or tie

2) BAL loss or tie + PIT loss or tie

BALTIMORE RAVENS

Baltimore clinches AFC North Division and a first-round bye with:

1) BAL win

2) BAL tie + PIT loss or tie

3) PIT loss

Baltimore clinches home-field advantage throughout AFC playoffs with:

1) BAL win + NE loss

PITTSBURGH STEELERS

Pittsburgh clinches AFC North Division and a first-round bye with:

1) PIT win + BAL loss or tie

2) PIT tie + BAL loss

Pittsburgh clinches home-field advantage throughout AFC playoffs  with:

1) PIT win + BAL loss or tie + NE loss

DENVER BRONCOS

Denver clinches AFC West Division with:

1) DEN win

2) DEN tie + OAK loss or tie

3) OAK loss

OAKLAND RAIDERS

Oakland clinches AFC West Division with:

1) OAK win + DEN loss or tie

2) OAK tie + DEN loss

Oakland clinches a wild-card spot with:

1) OAK win + CIN loss + TEN loss or tie

2) OAK win + CIN loss + NYJ win

CINCINNATI BENGALS

Cincinnati clinches a wild-card spot with:

1) CIN win or tie

2) NYJ loss or tie + OAK loss or tie

3) NYJ loss or tie + DEN loss or tie

NEW YORK JETS

Jets clinch a wild-card spot with:

1) NYJ win + CIN loss + TEN loss or tie + OAK loss or tie

2) NYJ win + CIN loss + TEN loss or tie + DEN loss or tie

TENNESSEE TITANS

Tennessee clinches a wild card spot with:

1) TEN win + CIN loss + NYJ win + OAK loss or tie

2) TEN win + CIN loss + NYJ win + DEN loss or tie

3) TEN win + CIN loss + NYJ loss or tie + OAK win + DEN win

NFL Standings, Playoff Scenarios, & Week 16 TV Maps

There is one final Thursday Night game this week on the NFL Network and its Houston @ Indianapolis with Brad Nessler and Mike Mayock.  The “regular” schedule this week is on Saturday because of Sunday being Christmas Day.  At 1pm all local Fox affiliates will show St. Louis @ Pittsburgh with Dick Stockton and John Lynch.  At 1pm CBS in Youngstown and Wheeling will show Cleveland @ Baltimore with Spero Dedes and Rich Gannon.  CBS Pittsburgh is contractually obligated to not show a 1pm game, so at 4:05pm they will show San Diego @ Detroit with Greg Gumbel and Dan Dierdorf.  At 4:15pm all local Fox affiliates will show Philadelphia @ Dallas with Joe Buck and Troy Aikman.  And of course the NFL Red Zone Channel will offer its customary continuous live whip around the league all afternoon Saturday.  There is no night game Saturday; NBC’s game is in the usual time slot Sunday (Christmas) night and its Chicago @ Green Bay with Al Michaels and Cris Collinsworth.  There is one final Monday Night game this season and its Atlanta @ New Orleans with Mike Tirico, Ron Jaworski, and Jon Gruden.  As always this info from the506.com and subject to change.  Enjoy the games.

And now for the playoff picture, starting with the AFC:

Playoff Seeds:

1. New England (clinched division) (11-3)

2. Baltimore (clinched playoff spot) (10-4) ([head-to-head on Pittsburgh for division rank] head-to-head on Houston)

3. Houston (clinched division)

4. Denver (8-6)

5. Pittsburgh (clinched playoff spot) (10-4)

6. New York (8-6) (record against opponents common with Cincinnati)

New York @ Houston Saturday January 7th at 4:30pm on NBC (Tom Hammond & Mike Mayock).  Pittsburgh @ Denver Sunday January 8th at 4:30pm on CBS (Jim Nantz & Phil Simms).  Lower winning seed @ New England Saturday January 14th at 8pm on CBS (Jim Nantz & Phil Simms).  Higher winning seed @ Baltimore Sunday January 15th at 1pm on CBS (Greg Gumbel and Dan Dierdorf).

In the Hunt

7. Cincinnati

8. Tennessee (7-7) (record against opponents common with Oakland {head-to-head with San Diego for division rank])

9. Oakland

10. San Diego

11. Kansas City (6-8) (alive for AFC West title only)

Mathematically Eliminated

12. Miami (5-9) (head-to-head with Buffalo)

13. Buffalo

14. Cleveland (4-10) (head-to-head with Jacksonville)

15. Jacksonville

16. Indianapolis (1-13)

New York currently has tiebreaking advantage on Cincinnati because of a 1/2 game better record against common opponents.  However, should they both win out to 10-6 that half game would get erased, kicking the tiebreaking down to strength of victory.  If my calculations are correct New York’s defeated opponents (adding in wins the final two games) currently have 6 more wins than Cincinnati’s defeated opponents.  That could change however with two weeks to go.  If both teams stumble it could let Tennessee or Oakland back into the mix.  If the Jets loss was their Week 17 game with Miami, then the Titans and Raiders would have a better conference record than both New York and Cincinnati.  Denver could also end up a wildcard, but they would have to win this week, then lose Week 17 while seeing the Raiders win both remaining games (plus have New York and Cincinnati lose a game).  The Chargers also have a wildcard scenario, but it takes more help.  Even to win the division they need to win both remaining games while having Denver lose twice.  Kansas City is also alive for the division, but must win twice, have Denver lose twice, and have the team that wins the Week 17 San Diego v Oakland game first lose their game this weekend.

At the top of the conference last week was obviously a beautiful one for New England.  They officially clinched the division while seeing all 3 teams they are vying for a bye seed and homefield advantage all lose.  Baltimore and Pittsburgh both clinched wildcard spots, with the Ravens remaining in control of the division.  The Ravens are also in control of the getting the 2nd bye seed with two wins unless New England loses a game and Houston wins out, which would rob the Ravens of the chance to use their head-to-head advantage on the Texans.  If the Ravens lose a game then Houston would get the 2nd bye seed as they have head-to-head on Pittsburgh, again unless New England loses a game.  2nd place in the North cannot do worse than the #5 seed.

NFC:

Playoff Seeds

1. Green Bay (clinched division & bye seed) (13-1)

2. San Francisco (clinched division) (11-3) (conference record on New Orleans)

3. New Orleans (clinched playoff spot)

4. Dallas (8-6)

5. Atlanta (9-5) (head-to-head on Detroit)

6. Detroit

Atlanta @ Dallas Saturday January 7th at 8pm on NBC (Al Michaels & Cris Collinsworth). Detroit @ New Orleans Sunday January 8th at 1pm on Fox (Joe Buck & Troy Aikman).  Higher winning seed @ San Francisco Saturday January 14th at 4:30pm on Fox (Kenny Albert, Moose, & Goose).  Lower winning seed @ Green Bay Sunday January 15th at 4:30pm on Fox (Joe Buck &  Troy Aikman)

In the Hunt

7. Seattle (7-7) ([head-to-head on Arizona for division rank] head-to-head on Chicago after conference record drops New York from tie)

8. Chicago (conference record on Arizona and New York)

9. New York (head-to-head on Arizona) (alive for NFC East title only)

10. Arizona

11. Philadelphia (6-8) (alive for NFC East title only)

Mathematically Eliminated

12. Carolina (5-9) (head-to-head on Washington)

13. Washington

14. Tampa Bay (4-10)

15. Minnesota (2-12) (conference record on St. Louis)

16. St. Louis

Atlanta and Detroit will claim the wildcard spots with one more win each.  If either should lose both remaining games then they can let other teams into the mix.  Seattle if they get to 9-7 would be in the best shape.  Arizona would also be in good shape unless Chicago were also 9-7.  Chicago would be in good shape if the tie did not involve Seattle.  Dallas could theoretically be the wildcard if they didn’t win the division, but they would have to beat Philadelphia, then lose to New York while also having Detroit win at least one game, have Chicago lose at least one game, have Atlanta lose twice, and have the team that wins the Week 17 Seattle v Arizona game first lose their Week 16 game.  New York cannot be the wildcard because if they end up 9-7 they win the East.  For Philadelphia to win the East they must win twice and have New York lose to the Jets this Saturday, then beat Dallas Week 17.  Dallas wins the East if they beat the Giants Week 17, regardless of what they do this weekend, or by winning this weekend along with the Giants losing.

At the top of the conference Green Bay will be the #1 seed unless they lose twice and San Francisco wins twice.  The 49ers have the tiebreaking advantage on New Orleans for the 2nd bye seed.  The Saints could lose the division to Atlanta if they lose to the Falcons this coming Monday Night, then lose Week 17 while the Falcons win their final game.

Copied below are the official clinching scenarios for this coming weekend from nfl.com:

NFC

CLINCHED:

Green Bay Packers — North Division and first-round bye.

San Francisco 49ers — West Division.

New Orleans Saints — Wild-card spot.

ELIMINATED:

Carolina, Minnesota, St. Louis, Tampa Bay, Washington.

GREEN BAY PACKERS

Green Bay clinches home-field advantage throughout NFC playoffs:

1) GB win or tie

2) SF loss or tie

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

San Francisco clinches a first-round bye:

1) SF win + NO loss

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

New Orleans clinches NFC South Division:

1) NO win or tie

DALLAS COWBOYS

Dallas clinches NFC East Division:

1) DAL win + NYG loss or tie

2) DAL tie + NYG loss

ATLANTA FALCONS

Atlanta clinches a wild-card spot:

1) ATL win or tie

2) DAL loss or tie + CHI loss or tie + ARI loss or tie

3) NYG loss or tie + CHI loss or tie + ARI loss or tie

DETROIT LIONS

Detroit clinches a wild-card spot:

1) DET win or tie

2) CHI loss or tie + ARI loss or tie + SEA loss or tie + DAL loss or tie

3) CHI loss or tie + ARI loss or tie + SEA loss or tie + NYG loss or tie

4) CHI loss or tie + ARI loss or tie + SEA loss or tie + ATL win or tie

AFC

CLINCHED:

Houston Texans — South Division.

New England Patriots — East Division.

Baltimore Ravens — Wild-card spot.

Pittsburgh Steelers — Wild-card spot.

ELIMINATED:

Buffalo, Cleveland, Indianapolis, Miami, Jacksonville.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

New England clinches a first-round bye:

1) NE win + HOU loss or tie

2) NE win + PIT loss or tie + BAL loss or tie

3) NE tie + HOU loss

4) NE tie + PIT loss + BAL loss

New England clinches home-field advantage throughout AFC playoffs:

1) NE win + HOU loss or tie + PIT loss or tie + BAL loss or tie

BALTIMORE RAVENS

Baltimore clinches AFC North Division:

1) BAL win + PIT loss

Baltimore clinches a first-round bye:

1) BAL win + PIT loss + HOU loss

DENVER BRONCOS

Denver clinches AFC West Division:

1) DEN win + OAK loss or tie

2) DEN tie + OAK loss + SD loss or tie

Denver clinches a wild-card spot:

1) DEN win + NYJ loss + CIN loss + TEN loss or tie

NFL Playoff Picture & Week 15 TV Coverage Maps

The NFL Network has two games this weekend, starting on Thursday night with Jacksonville @ Atlanta, then on Saturday night Dallas @ Tampa Bay.  Both games at 8:30pm.  Sunday afternoon Fox has 1 game and all local affiliates are currently scheduled to show Carolina @ Houston with Ron Pitts and Charles Davis at 1pm.  At 1pm all local CBS affiliates will show Cincinnati @ St Louis with Greg Gumbel and Dan Dierdorf.  At 4:15pm Youngstown will show Cleveland @ Arizona with Bill Macatee and Steve Tasker while Pittsburgh and Wheeling will show New England @ Denver with Jim Nantz and Phil Simms.  And as usual the NFL Red Zone Channel will offer its customary continuous live whip around the league all afternoon Sunday.  The Sunday Night game on NBC is Baltimore @ San Diego with Al Michaels and Cris Collinsworth and the Monday Night game on ESPN is Pittsburgh @ San Francisco with Mike Tirico, Ron Jaworski, and Jon Gruden.  As always this info from the506.com.

And now for the playoff picture, starting in the AFC.  Just because I’m that bored, I am going to add projected exact start times and network and announcer assignments for the playoff games:

Playoffs as of Today

1. Houston (10-3) (conference record on New England & Baltimore [head-to-head on Pittsburgh for division rank]) (clinched division)

2. Baltimore (record against opponents common with New England)

3. New England

4. Denver (8-5)

5. Pittsburgh (10-3)

6. New York (8-5)

New York @ New England Saturday January 7th at 8pm on NBC (Al Michaels & Cris Collinsworth) Pittsburgh @ Denver Sunday January 8th at 4:30pm on CBS (Jim Nantz & Phil Simms). Higher winning seed @ Baltimore Saturday January 14th at 8pm on CBS (Jim Nantz & Phil Simms) lower winning seed @ Houston Sunday January 15th at 1pm on CBS (Greg Gumbel & Dan Dierdorf)

In the Hunt

7. Tennessee (7-6) (conference games winning % on Cincinnati & Oakland)

8. Cincinnati (conference record on Oakland)

9. Oakland

10. San Diego (6-7)

Playing for 2012

11. Buffalo (5-8) (head-to-head on Kansas City) (mathematically eliminated)

12. Kansas City (mathematically eliminated)

13. Miami (4-9) (conference record on Jacksonville & Cleveland) (mathematically eliminated)

14. Cleveland (head-to-head on Jacksonville) (mathematically eliminated)

15. Jacksonville (mathematically eliminated)

16. Indianapolis (0-13) (mathematically eliminated)

All four teams at the top of the conference won last weekend.  Houston clinched their division and the other 3 are all very close to clinching their division (New England) or at least playoff spots.  What is essentially in play at this point is the West division and the 2nd wildcard.  The Jets have a 1 game lead and therefore obviously the spot is theirs if they win out.  However, if they should lose a game, particularly their game with Miami in Week 17, their tiebreaking is unsound and would then be at risk of having Tennessee, Cincinnati, or Oakland grab the spot.  In the West division the Broncos are in similarly good shape being 1 game up on the Raiders and 2 on the Chargers.  They can afford to lose either to the Pats this weekend or to the Bills on Christmas Eve so long as they win one of the two and win the Kansas City game Week 17 the division is theirs.  Losing to the Chiefs can let Oakland back in the race, and losing all 3 games down the stretch lets the always johnny-come-lately Chargers back into the race.  San Diego’s tiebreaking is not good, so they need to flat pass the Broncos to win the division.  They have better hope of winning a tiebreaker for the wildcard should it fall to 9-7, especially if the one of the two necessary Jets losses is the Miami game.

NFC

1. Green Bay (13-0) (clinched division & 1st round bye)

2. San Francisco (10-3) (conference record on New Orleans) (clinched division)

3. New Orleans (clinched playoff spot)

4. New York (head-to-head on Dallas for division)

5. Atlanta (8-5) (head-to-head on Detroit)

6. Detroit

Detroit @ New Orleans Saturday January 7th at 4:30pm on NBC (Tom Hammond & Mike Mayock) Atlanta @ New York Sunday January 8th at 1pm on Fox (Joe Buck & Troy Aikman).  Higher winner at San Francisco Saturday January 14th at 4:30pm on Fox (Kenny Albert, Moose, & Goose) lower winner at Green Bay Sunday January 15th at 4:30pm (Joe Buck & Troy Aikman).

In the Hunt

7. Chicago (7-6) (conference record on Dallas)

8. Dallas

9. Seattle (6-7) (head-to-head on Arizona)

10. Arizona

Alive Only Mathematically

11. Philadelphia (5-8)

Playing for 2012

12. Carolina (4-9) ([head-to-head on Tampa for division rank] head-to-head on Washington) (mathematically eliminated)

13. Washington (conference record on Tampa) (mathematically eliminated)

14. Tampa (mathematically eliminated)

15. Minnesota (2-11) (conference record on St. Louis) (mathematically eliminated)

16. St. Louis (mathematically eliminated)

San Francisco’s upset loss at Arizona gives the Saints a better chance at grabbing the 2nd first round bye, but they do need to finish ahead of the 49ers as it currently stands.  That result also keeps the Cardinals slim wild card chances alive; Seattle and Arizona play each one more time if the winner of that game wins out to 9-7 and has either Detroit or Atlanta lose two of three down the stretch they can steal a playoff spot.  Arizona would also need Chicago to lose twice to be at 8-8 or would need Chicago to be tied with Detroit & behind Detroit in the North division standings at 9-7.  For Chicago to have tiebreaking on Detroit they need the Lions to lose Week 17 to Green Bay while winning at Lambeau in Week 16, and also against the Vikings Week 17.  Or they could have the Lions stay ahead of them but have Atlanta lose a game as they beat the Falcons.  Since New York and Dallas play again Week 17 the best that 2nd place in the East can be (barring a tie) is 9-7; if New York is in the wildcard pool they’re not winning many tiebreakers, but Dallas could in the right combinations; in fact that is one potential complication for Seattle getting a wildcard.  To summarize, if things break right, the NFC could be a wild scramble for one or both wildcards.  Or Detroit and Atlanta could have good finishes and make the race boring.  In the East it can also be noted that if the eventual winner of the Week 17 rematch loses both games beforehand, and the eventual loser also loses at least one of the two preceding games, the Eagles can win the division at 8-8.

And now for the official clinching scenarios in Week 15 from NFL.com:

NFC

CLINCHED:
Green Bay Packers — North Division and first-round bye
San Francisco 49ers — West Division
New Orleans Saints — wild card spot

ELIMINATED:
Carolina, Minnesota, St. Louis, Tampa Bay, Washington

GREEN BAY PACKERS
Green Bay clinches home-field advantage throughout NFC playoffs:
1) GB win or tie
2) SF loss or tie

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
New Orleans clinches South Division title:
1) NO win + ATL loss or tie
2) NO tie + ATL loss

AFC

CLINCHED:
Houston Texans — South Division

ELIMINATED:
Buffalo, Cleveland, Indianapolis, Miami, Jacksonville

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
New England clinches East Division title:
1) NE win
2) NE tie + NYJ loss or tie
3) NYJ loss

New England clinches a wild card spot:
1) NE tie
2) CIN loss or tie + OAK loss or tie + TEN loss or tie

BALTIMORE RAVENS
Baltimore clinches a wild card spot:
1) BAL win or tie
2) NYJ loss + OAK loss or tie
3) NYJ loss + TEN loss or tie
4) OAK loss or tie + TEN loss or tie

PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Pittsburgh clinches a wild card spot:
1) PIT win or tie
2) OAK loss or tie
3) TEN loss or tie
4) DEN loss
5) NYJ loss

NFL Playoff Picture Week 14 & TV Maps Tri State Area

*UPDATE* Once again the Fox map locally has been altered.  Fox Pittsburgh & Wheeling will now show New Orleans @ Tennessee with Joe Buck and Troy Aikman at 1pm.  Youngstown will wait until 4:05pm to show San Francisco @ Arizona with Dick Stockton and John Lynch (the DeBartalo factor).

This weekend’s schedule starts Thursday at 8:20pm on the NFL Network with Cleveland @ Pittsburgh with Brad Nessler and Mike Mayock.  Sunday afternoon all local Fox affiliates will show at 1pm Philadelphia @ Miami with Chris Myers and Tim Ryan.  CBS has the doubleheader; at 1pm all local affiliates will show Houston @ Cincinnati with Marv Alberts and Rich Gannon and at 4:15pm will show Oakland @ Green Bay with Jim Nantz and Phil Simms.  And of course the NFL Red Zone Channel will offer its customary continuous live whip around the league all afternoon Sunday.  The Sunday Night game on NBC is the NY Giants @ Dallas with Al Michaels and Cris Collinsworth and the Monday Night game on ESPN is St. Louis @ Seattle with Mike Tirico, Ron Jaworski, and Jon Gruden.  As always this info from the506.com and subject to change.

For the conference standings I am going to use a similar format as the past couple weeks, with the exception that I am going to put the 7 loss teams into a “mathematically alive” category.  In the AFC this is moreso because two of them are alive in the West division race, but in the NFC because last week’s losing by several teams has brought the specter of a 9-7 wildcard into reality.

AFC

Playoff Position

1. Houston (9-3) (conference record drops Baltimore [head-to-head on Pittsburgh for division lead] from 3-way tie, then strength of victory on New England)

2. New England (conference record on Baltimore)

3. Baltimore

4. Denver (7-5) (division record on Oakland)

5. Pittsburgh (9-3)

6. Cincinnati (7-5) (conference record on New York, Tennessee, and Oakland)

The wildcard games would be Cincinnati @ Baltimore & Pittsburgh @ Denver. Houston would play the lowest remaining seed & New England the higher remaining seed divisional weekend

In the Hunt

7. Tennessee (conference record on New York & Oakland)

8. Oakland (head-to-head on New York)

9. New York

Mathematically Alive

10. Buffalo (5-7) (head-to-head on Kansas City [division record on San Diego for divisional rank])

11. Kansas City

12. San Diego

Playing for 2012

13. Cleveland (4-8) (head-to-head on Miami)

14. Miami

15. Jacksonville (3-9) (mathematically eliminated)

16. Indianapolis (0-12) (mathematically eliminated)

At the top with four teams at 9-3 its a very fluid situation for bye positions, and in the North, for simply winning the division.  The Bengals have fallen back into a tie for 6th, but they have excellent tiebreakers, with fewer losses in conference games than the teams they are tied with, except for the Titans, whom they beat head-to-head.  Denver is now taking a turn leading the West division; they split head-to-head with Oakland and both have two division losses.  If they win out Denver will maintain a 1 game lead in games against common opponents.  The Bills are not mathematically out yet, but they’re done.  They are 2 games behind with 4 games to go to teams that for the most part they do not have tiebreaking advantage with.

NFC

Playoff Position

1. Green Bay [clinched division] (12-0)

2. San Francisco [clinched division] (10-2)

3. New Orleans (9-3)

4. Dallas (7-5)

5. Atlanta (7-5) (head-to-head on Detroit [record against opponents common with Chicago for divisional rank])

6. Detroit

The wildcard games would be Detroit @ New Orleans and Atlanta @ Dallas, with Green Bay hosting the lowest seed & San Francisco the higher seed divisional weekend.

In the Hunt

7. Chicago

8. New York (6-6)

Mathematically Alive

9. Seattle (5-7) (head-to-head on Arizona)

10. Arizona

Playing for 2012

11. Philadelphia (4-8) ([head-to-head on Washington for division rank] conference record on Carolina [head-to-head with Tampa for division rank])

12. Carolina (head-to-head with Washington)

13. Washington (conference record on Tampa

14. Tampa

15. Minnesota (2-10) (conference record on St. Louis) (mathematically eliminated)

16. St. Louis (mathematically eliminated)

Frankly not much has changed from last week with the top 3 teams all winning and the 4 teams primarily competing for the other 3 spots all losing.  That losing did serve to bring Seattle and Arizona back into the race if they can win out, especially Seattle who at 9-7 would have an 8-4 conference record and win just about any ties.  The Lions are 2-5 after a 5-0 start and the Bears are not enjoying life with Caleb Hanie, and both still have to play the Packers again, so a 9-7 wildcard in the NFC is most certainly possible.

And below are the clinching scenarios for Week 14:

NFC

CLINCHED:
Green Bay Packers — North Division
San Francisco 49ers — West Division

ELIMINATED:
Minnesota, St. Louis

GREEN BAY PACKERS
Green Bay clinches a first-round bye:
1) GB win
2) GB tie + NO loss or tie
3) NO loss

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
New Orleans clinches South Division title:
1) NO win + ATL loss

New Orleans clinches wild card spot:
1) NO win + DET loss
2) NO win + CHI loss

AFC

CLINCHED: None
ELIMINATED: Indianapolis, Jacksonville

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
New England clinches East Division title:
1) NE win + NYJ loss

HOUSTON TEXANS
Houston clinches South Division title:
1) HOU win + TEN loss

PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Pittsburgh clinches wild card spot:
1) PIT win + CIN loss + NYJ loss + TEN loss
2) PIT win + CIN loss + NYJ loss + DEN loss + OAK loss
3) PIT win + CIN loss + TEN loss + DEN loss + OAK loss

NFL Standings, Playoff Picture, Week 13 TV Maps

The action this weekend starts with a Thursday Night game on the NFL Network; Philadelphia @ Seattle with Brad Nessler & Mike Mayock.  Sunday afternoon the CBS affiliates in Pittsburgh & Wheeling will show Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh with Jim Nantz & Phil Simms at 1pm.  CBS Youngstown will show Baltimore @ Cleveland with Bill Macatee & Steve Tasker at 4:05pm.  On Fox at 1pm Youngstown and Wheeling will show Atlanta @ Houston with Kenny Albert, Moose & Goose.  Fox Pittsburgh cannot show a 1pm game because the Steelers are at home on the other network.  However, they will come on the air promptly at 4pm and will be routed to the end of an early game at Fox’s discretion.  At 4:15pm all local Fox affiliates will show Green Bay @ the NY Giants with Joe Buck and Troy Aikman.  And the NFL Red Zone Channel will offer its customary continuous live whip around the league all afternoon Sunday.  The Sunday Night game on NBC is a “flex” game this week.  Originally scheduled to show the winless Colts play the Patriots, NBC will instead show Detroit @ New Orleans with Al Michaels & Cris Collinsworth.  The Monday Night game on ESPN is San Diego @ Jacksonville with Mike Tirico, Ron Jaworski, and Jon Gruden.  As always this info from the506.com and subject to change.  Enjoy the games.

Here is the currently conference standings & playoff picture, starting in the AFC:

Playoff Position:

1. Houston (7-2) (conference record on New England & Baltimore [head-to-head tiebreaker on Pittsburgh for division lead])

2. New England (conference record on Baltimore)

3. Baltimore

4. Oakland (7-4)

5. Pittsburgh (8-3)

6. Cincinnati (7-4)

The wildcard matchups would be Cincinnati @ Baltimore and Pittsburgh @ Oakland.  Houston would play the lowest remaining seed and New England the highest seeded winner in the divisional playoffs.

In the Hunt

7. Denver (6-5) (conference record on New York & Tennessee)

8. Tennessee (higher winning percentage in games against opponents that will be common w/ New York by end of season)

9. New York

10. Buffalo (5-6)

Playing for 2012

11. Cleveland (4-7) (conference record on Kansas City [division record tiebreaker on San Diego])

12. Kansas City

13. San Diego

14. Jacksonville (3-8) (conference record on Miami)

15. Miami

16. Indianapolis (0-11) (mathematically eliminated)

Not much has changed since last week, with the exception of Houston’s quarterback situation becoming even more dire.  Having a 2 game lead on Tennessee with 5 games to go they should be okay if they can figure out a way to finish 3-2, and 2-3 might suffice.  Of course, a middling record like that will probably drop them below New England and the North winner and force them to play on wildcard weekend.  It still looks solid for 3 teams from the North to make the playoffs, but New York, Tennessee (if they don’t catch Houston), and Denver (if they don’t catch Oakland) could grab a spot instead if they can get to 10-6 (and certainly if they win out but don’t grab their division titles).  Buffalo is still alive if they win out, but obviously in a bad spot.  They got swept by the Jets and would therefore lose a critical tie for division rank.  They must win out and have the Jets lose twice down the stretch to have any realistic shot.

NFC

Playoff Position

1. Green Bay (11-0)

2. San Francisco (9-2)

3. New Orleans (8-3)

4. Dallas (7-4)

5. Atlanta (7-4) (head-to-head on Detroit [record against opponents that will be common with Chicago by end of season for division rank])

6. Detroit

The wildcard matchups would be Detroit @ New Orleans and Atlanta @ Dallas with Green Bay hosting the lowest seed and San Francisco the higher winning seed in the divisional playoffs.

You might notice that my standings differ from what you would find on NFL.com who is ranking Chicago ahead of Detroit in the division, and therefore putting the Bears 5th (they beat Atlanta) and the Lions out.  They are doing this because the Bears have a better conference record.  However, in breaking ties within a division, the 3rd tiebreaker after head-to-head (they split) and record in division games (they are both 2-2) is record against common opponents, as within a division all but 2 games are common opponents for everyone, whereas 4 games are non-conference.  However, NFL.com is not applying this tiebreaker yet in their standings.  For the record, the Lions are currently 5-2 against opponents that will be common with the Bears while Chicago is 5-3 against opponents common with the Lions (will be common by the end of the season).  For the record I also used this procedure in the AFC standings to break the Titans/Jets tie (for non-division ties, it comes after conference record in the list), even though Tennessee has not played the minimum of 4 common games yet, because they will by the end of the season.

In the Hunt

7. Chicago (see above)

8. New York (6-5)

Playing for 2012

9. Philadelphia (4-7) ([head-to-head tiebreaker for division rank on Washington] conference record on Tampa, conference winning percentage on Seattle [head-to-head tiebreaker on Arizona for division rank])

10. Washington (conference record drops Tampa from 3-way tie, then head-to-head on Seattle)

11. Seattle (conference record on Tampa)

12. Arizona (conference record on Tampa)

13. Tampa

14. Carolina (3-8)

15. Minnesota (2-9) (conference record on St. Louis) (mathematically eliminated)

16. St. Louis (mathematically eliminated)

It can be noted that if Dallas and New York both struggle down the stretch and Philadelphia won out they would win ties at 9-7, but that doesn’t seem likely at this point.  It looks like Green Bay and San Francisco will get the byes.  The 49ers only have a one game lead on New Orleans, but aside from a home game with Pittsburgh they play only relatively weak division foes the rest of the season.  The Saints have a 1 game lead and tiebreaking advantage on Atlanta.  Dallas and New York still have both contests with each other remaining.  The 2-4 play from the Lions after their 5-0 start, a recent surge from Atlanta, and Jay Cutler’s injury combine to have the wildcard picture less clear than it used to look.  The Giants are also in the wildcard race, but its likely that if they play well enough to be in that race they would win the East; really the only way they are a wildcard is if they go 4-1 down the stretch, the loss being to Dallas, and therefore are 10-6 and behind a Cowboys team that also goes 4-1 down the stretch, or 3-2 with tiebreaking advantage.

Green Bay and San Francisco are the only teams that can mathematically clinch a playoff spot this weekend:

NFC

CLINCHED: None
ELIMINATED: Minnesota, St. Louis.

GREENBAY PACKERS
Green Bay clinches North Division title:
1) GB win + DET loss or tie
2) GB tie + CHI loss or tie + DET loss
3) CHI loss + DET loss

Green Bay clinches a playoff spot:
1) GB win
2) GB tie + CHI loss or tie
3) CHI loss
4) ATL loss
5) DET loss
6) NO loss + ATL tie

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
San Francisco clinches West Division title:
1) SF win or tie
2) SEA loss or tie + ARI loss or tie

AFC

CLINCHED: None
ELIMINATED: Indianapolis

NFL Standings & Week 12 TV Maps for Tri-State Area

Being Thanksgiving we have a Thursday tripleheader.  At 12:30pm Fox will have Green Bay @ Detroit with Joe Buck & Troy Aikman.  At 4:15pm CBS will have Miami @ Dallas with Jim Nantz & Phil Simms.  And at 8:20 the NFL Network will have San Francisco @ Baltimore with Brad Nessler and Mike Mayock.  On Sunday afternoon CBS has the doubleheader.  At 1pm all local affiliates will show Cleveland @ Cincinnati with Bill Macatee and Steve Tasker.  All local Fox affiliates will wait until 4:05pm to show Chicago @ Oakland with Kenny Albert, Moose, & Goose.  At 4:15pm all local CBS affiliates will show New England @ Philadelphia with Greg Gumbel and Dan Dierdorf.  And of course the NFL Red Zone Channel will offer its customary continuous live whip around the league all afternoon Sunday.  The Sunday Night game on NBC is Pittsburgh @ Kansas City with Al Micahels and Cris Collinsworth, and the Monday Night game on ESPN is the NY Giants @ New Orleans with Mike Tirico, Ron Jaworski, and Jon Gruden.  As always this info from the506.com and subject to change.  Enjoy the games.

And below are the current conference standings; I will divide both conferences into the current playoff roster (teams 1-6), teams that are “in the hunt” (6 or fewer losses), and then teams playing out the schedule (7 or more losses).  Also there are a couple teams that can clinch playoff spots this weekend, and I’ll attach that info at the bottom.  So starting w/ the AFC:

Playoff Seed:

1. Houston (7-3) (conference record drops Baltimore from 3-way tie, then record against opponents common vs New England)

2. New England (conference record on Baltimore)

3. Baltimore (head-to-head tiebreaker on Pittsburgh for division rank)

4. Oakland (6-4)

5. Pittsburgh (7-3)

6. Cincinnati (6-4)

If the playoffs started today it would be Cincinnati @ Baltimore & Pittsburgh @ Oakland on wildcard weekend. New England would play the highest winner & Houston the lowest winner on divisional weekend.

In the Hunt

7. Denver (5-5) (conference record on New York [ head-to-head on Buffalo for divisional rank] & Tennessee)

8. Tennessee (conference record on New York)

9. New York

10. Buffalo

11. San Diego (4-6) [record vs opponents common for division rank on Kansas City], then strength of victory on Cleveland

12. Cleveland (conference record on Kansas City)

13. Kansas City

Playing Out the String

14. Jacksonville (3-7) (conference record on Miami)

15. Miami

16. Indianapolis (0-10)

As you can see using the rubric of including all the teams that can theoretically end up 10-6 or better fully 13 of the 16 teams in the AFC are still alive as we enter Thanksgiving, and it could be noted that Jacksonville and Miami are both also technically alive should a playoff spot fall to 9-7.  With Cincinnati, New York, Buffalo, Tennessee, San Diego, and Kansas City all losing in Week 11 its a possibility, though not a likelihood.  New England is in excellent shape to win the East at this point, and Houston is in a strong position in the South if they can maintain with Matt Leinart at quarterback.  The North figures to be a dog fight to the end with the 2nd and quite possibly the 3rd team looking great for wildcards.  Its an important game in Cincinnati Sunday; the Bengals need a win to make sure they maintain a solid playoff position, and the Browns need to string together wins to stay in the playoff hunt.  Out west Oakland is obviously in the best shape having the game lead on Denver, and last week’s losing does mean that 2nd place in the West has more of a chance for a wildcard than it has looked in weeks, though its still not likely.

And in the NFC:

Playoff Seeds

1. Green Bay (10-0)

2. San Francisco (9-1)

3. New Orleans (7-3)

4. Dallas (6-4) (division record on New York for division lead)

5. Detroit (7-3) (division record on Chicago for division rank)

6. Chicago

If the playoffs started right now it would be Chicago @ New Orleans and Detroit @ Dallas on wildcard weekend, with Green Bay hosting the lowest winner and San Francisco the highest winner divisional weekend

In the Hunt

7. Atlanta (6-4)  (conference record on New York)

8. New York

9. Seattle (4-6) (conference record on Philadelphia & Tampa Bay)

10. Philadelphia (conference record on Tampa Bay)

11. Tampa Bay

Playing Out the String

12. Washington (3-7) (head-to-head on Arizona)

13. Arizona

14. Minnesota (2-8) (conference record on Carolina & St. Louis)

15. St. Louis (strength of victory on Carolina)

16. Carolina

11 teams still listed as in the hunt, but with 3 teams at 4-6 and the #6 seed currently being 7-3, it looks more realistically like 8 teams for 6 spots, though it can be noted Philadelphia is still very alive in the division race.  Currently 3-1 in division games they would be in strong position to hold tiebreakers if they can catch the Giants and Cowboys who they currently trail by two games each.  Chicago was dealt a blow this week with the injury to Jay Cutler; they hold good tiebreakers and a 1 game lead so a 3-3 finish might be enough.  San Francisco & Green Bay actually have ways they can clinch a playoff spot this week:

San Francisco clinches the NFC West:

1) win & Seattle loss or tie OR

2) tie & Seattle loss

Green Bay clinches a playoff spot:

1) win & Dallas loss or tie & Atlanta loss OR

2) win & Dallas loss or tie & New Orleans loss OR

3) win & New York loss or tie & Atlanta loss

Thanks for reading!

NFL Playoff Picture & Week 11 TV Maps for Tri State Area

*UPDATE* Fox Wheeling will now be showing Dallas @ Washington at 1pm. Kenny Albert, Moose, and Goose on the call.

First here is the TV schedule for this coming weekend:  The action starts on Thursday Night on the NFL Network with the NY Jets @ Denver.  On Fox all local affiliates are scheduled to show at 1pm Tampa Bay @ Green Bay with Joe Buck & Troy Aikman.  On CBS at 1pm both Pittsburgh and Wheeling will show Cincinnati @ Baltimore with Greg Gumbel and Dan Dierdorf while Youngstown will show Jacksonville @ Cleveland with Bill Macatee and Steve Tasker.  At 4:15pm all local CBS affiliates will show San Diego @ Chicago with Jim Nantz & Phil Simms.  And of course the NFL Red Zone Channel will offer its customary continuous live whip around the league all afternoon Sunday.  The Sunday Night game on NBC is Philadelphia at the NY Giants and the Monday Night game on ESPN is Kansas City @ New England.  As usual this info from the506.com and subject to change.

And now for the conference standings & playoff picture, starting in the AFC:

1. Houston (7-3) (head-to-head tiebreaker with Pittsburgh)

2. Pittsburgh

3. New England (6-3)

4. Oakland (5-4)

5. Baltimore (6-3) (division record on Cincinnati)

6. Cincinnati

7. New York (5-4) (head-to-head w/ Buffalo for divisional rank, tiebreaking on Tennessee)

8. Buffalo (conference record on Tennessee)

9. Tennessee

10. San Diego (head-to-head-to-head tiebreaking on Denver & Kansas City)

11. Denver (head-to-head tiebreaking on Kansas City)

12. Kansas City

13. Jacksonville (3-6) (conference record on Cleveland)

14. Cleveland

15. Miami (2-7)

16. Indianapolis (0-10)

In the AFC North the Steelers currently lead the division by a half game, but Baltimore and Cincinnati actually control their destiny for winning the division while the Steelers do not.   The Steelers currently have 7 wins and have games remaining with St. Louis and Cleveland (2) so they are in solid position to at least make the playoffs.  The Ravens have 3 losses, with 2 of them being the week after playing the Steelers; they don’t have that hurdle to overcome down the stretch.  The Bengals still have 3 of their 4 games with Baltimore and Pittsburgh ahead of them; its an obvious opportunity, but if those games go poorly it could imperil even their wildcard chances.  Cleveland still has 5 division games remaining & can therefor impact this race; they could’ve been in the playoff race but this past Sunday’s loss to the Rams really hurts their chances.

Having completed a sweep of the Jets, the Patriots are in great shape to win the East assuming the Bills don’t rebound and complete a sweep of the Pats later in the season.  If New York and Buffalo do have to rely on getting a wildcard, their losses to Baltimore and Cincinnati respectively could haunt them.  Matt Schaub’s injury puts Houston at some risk of losing the South to Tennessee, but if they can get to 10 or 11 wins that will probably be enough.  The Titans, if they can’t catch Houston, are also alive in the wildcard race and their Week 2 win against Baltimore could prove useful.  As for the Colts, I am not sure glancing at the numbers, and the NFL doesn’t officially release this sort of thing until after Thanksgiving, but they may already be mathematically eliminated from playoff contention.  They are eliminated from their division race.  In the West all 4 teams are currently 2-2 in division games, with Oakland having the current advantage of a 1 game lead.   However, the Raiders still have to play all 4 teams in the NFC North which isn’t easy.

And now for the NFC:

1. Green Bay (9-0)

2. San Francisco (8-1)

3. New Orleans (7-3)

4. New York (6-3)

5. Detroit (6-3) (division record tiebreaking on Chicago)

6. Chicago

7. Dallas (5-4) (conference record tiebreaking on Atlanta)

8. Atlanta

9. Tampa Bay (4-5)

10. Seattle (3-6) (head-to-head tiebreaking on Arizona for divisional rank, conference record on Philadelphia [head-to-head tiebreaking on Washington for divisional rank])

11. Arizona (head-to-head tiebreaking on Philadelphia)

12. Philadelphia

13. Washington

14. Minnesota (2-7) (conference record on Carolina & St. Louis)

15. St. Louis (tiebreaking on Carolina)

16. Carolina

Chicago has pulled even with Detroit for 2nd in the North but is still behind the Lions because of one more loss in division games.  Of course, the Lions haven’t played Green Bay yet; Thanksgiving Day is the 1st meeting.  Something that could actually help the Lions is that their trip to Lambeau is Week 17; the Packers could very well have the #1 seed clinched by then and treating the game as a glorified preseason game (unless they are 15-0 and care more about history than the Colts did a few seasons ago).  The Bears will spend the next 5 weeks playing the AFC West of my youth; the next 4 playing the current AFC West, followed by a game with Seattle.  At this point the Bears and Lions are in great shape to get the two wildcards, but the loser of the New York-Dallas race and/or Atlanta could still be factors.  Other teams are alive but will need to put together winning streaks.  The Cowboys still have both games remaining with the Giants, so they fully control their destiny for winning that division.  Coach Smith’s decision to be John Cooper stupid and go for a 4th down at his own 29 in overtime has put the Falcons in a weakened position trying to win the South.  Everyone winning in the NFC West last week means the 49ers cannot clinch the division mathematically this weekend; but a good Sunday followed by winning the Harbaugh Bowl Thanksgiving Night could give them a playoff spot to feast on.  Once that formality is taken care of, their win over the Giants served to fortify them being in great shape for getting the #2 seed in the playoffs and a 1st round bye.

NFL Conference Standings & Tri State TV Maps Week 10

*UPDATE* A couple changes to the local Fox map.  At 1pm Wheeling will be showing St Louis @ Cleveland.  And at 4:15pm Youngstown will show Detroit @ Chicago.

The action starts this week with our first NFL Network Thursday Night game of the season with Oakland @ San Diego.  As for Sunday afternoon all local CBS affiliates will do a 1pm game Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati with Ian Eagle and Dan Fouts.  Fox has the doubleheader and at 1pm the 3 local markets are scheduled for 3 different games.  Pittsburgh has New Orleans @ Atlanta with Kenny Albert, Moose, and Goose.  Youngstown has St. Louis @ Cleveland with Ron Pitts and Jim Mora, Jr.  Wheeling has Washington @ Miami with Chris Myers and Tim Ryan.  At 4:15pm all local Fox affiliates are scheduled to show the NY Giants @ San Francisco with Joe Buck and Troy Aikman.  And of course the NFL Red Zone Channel will offer its customary continuous live whip around the league all afternoon.  The Sunday Night game on NBC is New England @ NY Jets with Al Michaels and Cris Collinsworth and the Monday Night game on ESPN is Minnesota @ Green Bay with Mike Tirico, Ron Jaworski, and Jon Gruden.  As usual this info from the506.com and subject to change.

And now for the current conference standings, with records and explanations for tiebreaking, starting with the AFC:

1. Baltimore (6-2) (division record on Cincinnati)

2. Houston (6-3)

3. New England (5-3) (division record ranks them and New York ahead of Buffalo, then head-to-head on New York)

4. San Diego (4-4) (division record ranks them and Kansas City ahead of Oakland, then record against opponents that will be common by end of season ranks them ahead of Kansas City)

5. Cincinnati (6-2)

6. Pittsburgh (6-3)

7. New York (5-3) (head-to-head on Buffalo)

8. Buffalo

9. Kansas City (4-4) (head-to-head on Oakland for division rank, then record against opponents common on Tennessee)

10. Tennessee (record against opponents common on Oakland)

11. Oakland

12. Denver (3-5) (conference record on Cleveland)

13. Cleveland

14. Jacksonville (2-6)

15. Miami (1-7)

16. Indianapolis (0-9)

The simple assumption to currently make is that the 3 top teams in the East and the North are fighting for a total of 4 playoff spots, with Houston winning the South and someone winning the West.  That’s entirely too simple something will probably come along to change things.  For starters Tennessee could still certainly win the South or enter the wildcard picture, although head-to-head losses to both Pittsburgh and Cincinnati could certainly hurt them.  Its hard to see 2nd place in the West getting a wildcard, as it would take two teams most likely going 6-2 or better down the stretch, and even that might not be enough.  This coming Thursday night game is probably somewhat more important for Oakland just because they already have two division losses.  Denver is technically still very alive in the West being only 1 game behind the other 3 teams.  In the East the 3 good teams all have 1 win and 1 loss playing each other, with a difference being that Buffalo’s record is not (yet?) padded with a win against Miami.  In the North all 3 teams have 6 wins; the Steelers haven’t taken their bye yet and in order to win the division they’ll need Baltimore to lose two more games down the stretch (and of course be ahead of Cincinnati).  For the Bengals 4 of their 8 remaining games are with the Steelers and Ravens, so they obviously have their destiny in their hands.

And the NFC:

1. Green Bay (8-0)

2. San Francisco (7-1)

3. New York (6-2)

4. New Orleans (6-3)

5. Detroit (6-2)

6. Chicago (5-3) (head-to-head on Atlanta)

7. Atlanta

8. Dallas (4-4) (conference record on Tampa)

9. Tampa

10. Philadelphia (3-5) (head-to-head on Washington)

11. Washington

12. Seattle (2-6) (head-to-head on Arizona for divisional rank, then conference record on Minnesota & Carolina)

13. Minnesota (head-to-head victories over both Carolina & Arizona)

14. Arizona (head-to-head over Carolina)

15. Carolina

16. St. Louis (1-7)

As I said last week Chicago is in a remarkably strong position for a 3rd place team because they have beaten a large number of the teams they would potentially be in the wild card queue with, and last night’s win against the Eagles simply grew that list.  Finishing ahead of Detroit would obviously strengthen their position greatly, but being in a losing tie with the Lions could actually make things worse.  I didn’t check the vagaries of the schedule to see if this is literally true, but theoretically the 49ers could mathematically clinch the West before the Thanksgiving night Harbaugh Bowl.  The Giants are in a strong position to win the East but Dallas also controls their destiny having both games with New York remaining to be played.  The South is very competitive again this season; I have a sneaking suspicion it could be decided, at least in part, by who fails to avoid getting tripped up by a Carolina team that is playing better than their 2-6 record would indicate.