NFL Standings After Week 16

Just one week to go in the season!  Here are how things stand with one week to go, and below a quick synopsis of the various scenarios (some are modified from what I posted Sunday evening).  Please note that there are no quirky scenarios this year where a team is currently in a playoff spot but does not fully control their destiny; everyone currently listed as in would do no worse than their current station if they win Sunday (the one caveat on that is the #6 seed in the NFC; Tampa would hyper-technically be in right now b/c their 8-4 conference record is better than Dallas’ 7-4 or Chicago’s 7-5.  But if they all win Sunday, Dallas would even their conference record wrt Tampa, you would drop Chicago, and revert back to h2h on the two remaining tied clubs and Dallas is in.)  At any rate, starting as usual with the AFC:

1. Tennessee (clinched that seed), 2. Pittsburgh (clinched that seed), 3. Miami (conf rec wrt New England), 4. Denver, 5. Indianapolis (clinched that seed), 6. Baltimore (conf rec wrt New England) at 10-5

tied for 6th: 7. New England

1 game back of 6th: 8. New York

Alive for 4th seed (West division title): 9. San Diego

Eliminated: 10. Buffalo, 11. Houston, 12. Jacksonville, 13. Oakland, 14. Cleveland, 15. Cincinnati, 16. Kansas City

Miami wins the East if they beat New York Sunday and Baltimore wins the #6 if they beat Jacksonville.  New England gets the East (East winner will be the #3 seed in any scenario) if they win and Miami loses.  Patriots get the wildcard if they win and Baltimore loses.  New York gets the wildcard if they win and Baltimore loses (conference record tiebreaker).  New York gets the division if they win and New England loses (h2h2h rec wrt Miami and New England).  Miami can be the wildcard if they tie New York, New England wins, and Baltimore loses.  Baltimore can backdoor the wildcard if they lose but so does New England (either Miami has beaten New York and the Pats are 2nd in the East and Bal wins the tiebreaker on conference record or New York has beaten Miami and taken the East, making the Dolphins 2nd in the East and Baltimore edges the Dolphins on h2h tiebreaking).  Whoever wins the West will be seeded 4th; Denver holds on with a win or a tie Sunday night against the Chargers, but San Diego gets the title with a win, as at 8-8 they would have a better division record than the Broncos.

NFC:

1. New York (clinched that seed), 2. Carolina (clinched playoff spot), 3. Minnesota (conf record wrt Chicago), 4. Arizona (clinched that seed), 5. Atlanta (clinched playoff spot), 6. Dallas (same # conf losses as Tampa, conf rec wrt Bears, h2h wrt Tampa) at 9-6

Tied for 6th: 7. Tampa (conf rec wrt Chicago), 8. Chicago (still alive in div race also)

0.5 game back of 6th: 9. Philadelphia

Eliminated: 10. Washington, 11. New Orleans, 12. San Francisco, 13. Green Bay, 14. Seattle, 15. St. Louis, 16. Detroit

Whoever wins the South will get the #2 seed.  Carolina has it unless they lose to New Orleans and Atlanta beats St. Louis (Falcons would win tie on conf rec).  Whoever wins the North will get the #3 seed.  Vikings win a tie on conf rec, but the Bears can win the division outright by having a better Sunday (win v loss/tie or tie v loss).  Dallas wins the wildcard if they beat Philadelphia and can be the #5 seed if Atlanta loses.  A tie can also work for Dallas if Tampa loses and either the Bears or Vikings lose or tie.  Tampa can be the #6 seed if they win and Dallas loses or ties, or if they tie and so does Dallas but not Chicago or Minnesota (at least one of them loses).  Failing the North title, Chicago can be the #6 seed if they win and Dallas and Tampa lose or tie or if they tie and Dallas and Tampa lose (would win a tie w/ Philadelphia at 9-6-1 on h2h).  Failing the division, Minnesota can be the #6 seed if they tie and Dallas and Tampa lose (would win a tie w/ Philadelphia at 9-6-1 on conf rec but would  not win a tie w/ Dallas at 9-6-1 [both would be 7-4-1 in conf games but Dallas would have a better record against common opponents]).  Philadelphia can be the #6 seed if they beat Dallas, Tampa loses, and either Chicago or Minnesota loses.  Washington is eliminated because Dallas and Philadelphia are playing each other; either someone wins and is better than 9-7 or they tie and Dallas is better than 9-7.  New Orleans was eliminated last week because of poorer conference record and the same thing that blocks the Redskins is blocking them also.

I just checked and it does not appear that the506.com has the Week 17 TV maps up yet.  I will distribute that info in a seperate post as soon as the info is out there and I am able.

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