Semi Live Blogging Election 2008

7:07pm: I anticipate using this post to offer analysis through the night.  If it gets real lengthy I’ll close it and open a 2nd and subsequent posts.  I will analyze results, make predictions, and other insights as I see fit.  Anecdotal evidence points to extremely high voter turnout.  On a personal level, I waited 10 or 15 minutes to vote this morning myself, and I have never waited in line before at my precinct in East Liverpool.  I was there 5 minutes after polls opened at 6:30am and 8 people were in line in front of me.  Co-workers voting at various locations in western PA had waits of up to 1 hour.

7:11pm: At poll closing Kentucky was called for McCain and Vermont for Obama.  No surprises there.  Looks like Mitch McConnell is in for a long night; if he goes down the Senate will need a new minority leader and the Democrats would be looking great for getting the filibuster-proof 60 seats.

7:20pm: Indiana is very close right now, and we don’t have any numbers out of either Indianapolis or Gary, which is a great sign for Obama.  OTOH, a couple Indy ring counties have early numbers pro-McCain by a bit, which is good for him.

7:27pm: Polls close in Ohio in 3 minutes.  Over-under is set on 3.5 hours before we have numbers out of Cuyahoga County.

7:32pm: Does anyone know why the Democrat (Lunsford) is winning rural mountainous counties in western Kentucky; the Hatfield/McCoy region?  Mitch McConnell might be in serious trouble tonight.

7:35pm: Waiting for some numbers from the DC corridor in Virginia.  McCain has a bit of lead based on some central and southwestern VA numbers, but I suspect this one is going to tighten.

7:43pm: Some more numbers coming in from Hoosier country.  Obama looks to be killing in St. Joseph County (Notre Dame) and doing well in the counties on the southern portion of the Illinois border, ie downstate not that close to Chicago.  Also Obama is leading Switzerland County hard on the Cincinnati border.

7:53pm: Panel on CNN already questioning the veracity of exit polls.  I realize we have a paucity of real numbers right now, but that is a conversation best held about 4 hours from now.

7:58pm: CNN just called South Carolina for McCain.  No shock there.  Polls about to close in several critical states, like Pennsylvania, Florida, and Missouri.

8:01pm: At the top of the hour CNN calls Massachusettes, Connecticut, New Jersey, Illinois, DC, and 3 of the 4 EVs in Maine for Obama.  Oklahoma and Tennessee to McCain.  More interesting, unable to call Alabama strictly off of exits.

8:04pm: With all polls closed CNN now is making available the county maps for Florida.  Obama is of course doing well in the Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach corridor.  More critically, he is doing well in the I-4 corridor of Seminole, Orange, Osceola, and Polk counties.  That would be horrid news for McCain.

8:11pm: Early Ohio numbers actually include a small amount from Cuyahoga County.  What a refreshing change!

8:14pm: Fox News has called the North Carolina Senate race for Hagan the Democrat against Liddy Dole.  CNN has not made a call, but taking a quick look at the numbers I can’t argue w/ Fox.

8:21pm: Obama is almost tied with McCain in Ohio’s Washington County (Marietta).  That is not good news for Mac.

8:23pm: ABC News is projected Jeanne Shaheen will oust Republican incumbent Sununu in the New Hampshire Senate race.

8:26pm: Checking the early fragments out of WV, it shows Obama has a huge lead.  I think that is a bit misleading, though, as those numbers are mostly out of Ohio County (Wheeling), Monongalia (WVU) and Kanawha (Charleston).

8:30pm: CNN just called New Hampshire for Obama.  A lot of early numbers out of Cuyahoga County already.

8:40pm: Our first biggie of the night; CNN just called Pennsylvania for Barack Obama.  McCain made a huge push here as his firewall against losing the odd Bush state or two.  Appears that firewall just collapsed.

8:43pm: Looking at Indiana again; this is going to come down to Gary and surrounding area.  Obama needs to’ve done real strong here to pull this out.  Its close.

8:54pm: I think we can probably safely put Georgia in the McCain column.

9:05pm: Obama leading in Franklin County Ohio 62-37%.  Not sure if that is Ohio St or other precincts.  Obama has a strong statewide lead despite the lack of numbers out of Lucas County.

9:10pm: CNN projects Democrats retain control of the Senate.

9:14pm: Virginia is a nailbiter.  I think Obama probably pulls this out if a large enough percentage remaining out is in the NoVa region.  But seeing how the national picture seems to be trending very blue, its a bit surprising VA is this close; could very well be a McCain win.

9:19pm: CNN calls the Kentucky Senate race for Mitch McConnell.  It was a close one, though

9:20pm: Actual numbers from my home of Columbiana County.  Very fragmentary but it shows McCain ahead right now.  On closer inspection, those large numbers in Franklin County are on just 5% of precincts reporting.  I would like some numbers out of Lucas County please.

9:26pm: MSNBC has called Ohio for Obama.  I would prefer to see more numbers from the major urban counties first.  Then again, I think I know where those numbers are going, so I will call Ohio also.  And with that, the race for the White House is effectively over (assuming California is safe Obama).  Barack Obama will be the 44th President of the United States.

9:36pm: CNN just called Ohio for Obama.  Might not be particularly close.

9:46pm: Indiana is going to come down to the bitter end.  McCain still has a slight lead, but signficiant numbers of precincts still out in the 3 counties nearest to Chicago.  John King just did a demonstration on CNN TV basically showing how bleak the map now is for John McCain.  Even Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, and Indiana might not be enough.

9:48pm: CNN just called New Mexico for Obama and Louisiana for McCain.

9:56pm: I could be wrong but I think Obama is going to carry North Carolina.  Most of the votes still out are from Mecklenburg County, which is Charlotte.

10:04pm: Obama is going to win Florida, assuming he does as well as I think he’ll do in Palm Beach County.  He probably won’t completely kill if the Jewish vote is more split than it usually is for Democrats, which I think it might be.  But there are plenty of votes left in Miami-Dade also, and Republican areas of the state are largely reported.

10:21pm: Looking at Pennsylvania, Obama did not do great in Western PA.  He won Allegheny County of course, but not by a huge margin, Beaver County is even money, and Washington County went for McCain.  But he is killing in Philadelphia and its suburbs.  Bucks County used to be reliably Republican; Obama is up 57-32 w/ about 1/3 reporting.

10:45pm: Just marking time until California polls close at 11pm and we can get this thing into the speechmaking stage.

10:55pm: Just looking over some down-ballot numbers in Ohio.  Looks like the Wilmington Casino is going to fail 2-1.  Richard Cordray will keep the Attorney General seat in Democratic hands.  Jason Wilson will continue to be my State Senator and Linda Bolon my State Rep, both Dem holds.

10:58pm: CNN projects Virginia for Obama.  Which is to say, Obama will officially have this thing once they call California for him.

11:10pm: James Inhofe will be returning to the Senate.  What is it that the people of Oklahoma see in that wingbat?  Oh well.

11:29pm: John McCain just finished a very gracious concession speech which included some wonderful remarks on the history of the moment.  Classy.

11:44pm: Buckeyenewshawk is ready to project that the Democratic majority in the Senate will not be filibuster-proof as they will fall short of 60 seats.  Best case scenario on races not called by CNN would be right on 60-40 if you count Joe Lieberman.  But I don’t think the Dems are winning all 4 of those seats.  And, sitting on maybe about 58 seats gives them plenty of room to go ahead and boot Lieberman out of the caucus.

11:51pm: Looks like John McCain will win Columbiana County by about 3,600 votes while losing the state.  The rally last Friday in Hanoverton might’ve had a local effect, as the county is usually a bit better bellweather than that.

12:16am: Great victory speech by President-elect Obama, gracious and rousing.

And with that, time to conclude the live blog and get some sleep.  I suspect there will be some more in depth analysis in the coming days, but for now I need to take a nap before going to work later this morning.


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